Bitcoin

The Bitcoin market faces a surprising divergence as substantial Bitcoin ETF outflows contradict the ongoing price recovery. Despite BTC climbing back toward $115,000, spot Bitcoin ETFs witnessed a massive $326 million in net outflows on October 13. This significant institutional selling during a price rally suggests profit-taking is overwhelming new buying interest.

Major Bitcoin ETF Outflows Hit Market

Monday’s Bitcoin ETF outflows represent the largest withdrawal since the October 10 market crash. Nearly every major fund faced redemptions, except for one notable standout. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) defied the trend by attracting $60.3 million in inflows. Furthermore, IBIT recorded a massive $4.7 billion in daily trading volume, demonstrating its dominant market position.

This outflow reversal follows an exceptionally strong start to October. Previously, Bitcoin ETFs had accumulated over $5 billion in net inflows during the month’s first week. However, former President Trump’s tariff announcement triggered renewed volatility, ultimately pushing weekly flows into negative territory.

Market Sentiment Shifts Toward Caution

The current price action reveals growing investor caution. Bitcoin currently trades near $112,636, down 1.6% with trading volume declining 23%. Additionally, on-chain data shows whales increasing short positions on major altcoins including XRP, DOGE, and PEPE.

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink amplified this cautious tone during a recent CBS interview. While acknowledging cryptocurrency’s role as a diversification tool “in the same way there is a role for gold,” he warned retail investors against making it a “large component” of their portfolios. This measured endorsement contrasts with his 2017 description of Bitcoin as primarily for “money launderers and thieves.”

My Thoughts

This divergence between price action and ETF flows is concerning. Typically, institutional inflows drive sustainable rallies. The current outflows suggest smart money is distributing to retail buyers during this bounce. While BlackRock’s continued inflows provide some comfort, the broader institutional hesitation could limit upside potential until macroeconomic uncertainties resolve.

In a stunning show of institutional conviction, Bitcoin ETF inflows have defied the recent price dip, pouring another $876.5 million into the funds on October 7. This marks the seventh consecutive day of positive flows, bringing the total haul over this bullish streak to over $5.3 billion. While Bitcoin’s price faced a minor rejection at the $124,000 resistance level, the big money is clearly seeing this as a buying opportunity, not a reason to flee.

BlackRock Dominates The Bitcoin ETF inflows

The story, as often is the case, was dominated by a single player. BlackRock’s IBIT ETF was the undisputed champion, single-handedly attracting a massive $899.4 million in fresh capital. Valkyrie’s BRRR followed distantly with $4.8 million. The only blemish was a $28.6 million outflow from Grayscale’s GBTC, which was more than offset by the colossal inflows elsewhere. This consistent demand, even during a cooldown, signals that institutions are playing a long-term game, using dips to accumulate.

A Healthy Correction, Not a Trend Reversal

From a technical perspective, this pullback looks more like a healthy breather than a bearish reversal. Bitcoin is currently trading around $122,392, down a modest 1.5% on the day. Crucially, key momentum indicators are resetting perfectly. The RSI has cooled from overbought territory to a balanced 63, while the MACD remains firmly in bullish alignment.

The $120,000 psychological level is now the key support to watch. A hold above it keeps the bullish structure intact for a potential rebound toward $126,000. However, a break below $119,500 could trigger a deeper flush toward the $116,000-$117,000 support zone.

My Thoughts

This is exactly what you want to see in a strong bull market: price dips are met with institutional buying, not panic selling. The relentless Bitcoin ETF inflows are creating a formidable floor of demand. This doesn’t mean we can’t go lower, but it significantly reduces the probability of a deep, sustained crash. The path of least resistance remains upward as long as these flows continue.

Bitcoin has achieved a monumental milestone, surging to a new Bitcoin all-time high above $126,000. This record-breaking rally is largely driven by the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, which is fueling a “debasement trade” as investors seek a safe-haven asset.

Shutdown Fuels Rally to New Bitcoin All-Time High

The new Bitcoin all-time high coincides with significant political uncertainty. Data from Polymarket indicates a 72% chance the government shutdown will persist until at least October 15.

Consequently, investors are flocking to Bitcoin as a hedge against economic instability. Since the shutdown began on October 1, BTC has rallied nearly 10%, with spot ETFs recording a massive $3.24 billion in net inflows last week alone.

Analysts Predict Further Gains

Following the new Bitcoin all-time high, analysts are forecasting even more upside. Banking giant Standard Chartered predicts a surge to $135,000 in the near term and $200,000 by year-end.

Prediction markets reflect this optimism, showing a 68% chance Bitcoin hits $130,000 this month. The combination of institutional ETF demand and macroeconomic uncertainty creates a powerful bullish narrative.

The Technical Outlook

The path to this Bitcoin all-time high has been characterized by a steady grind within a bullish channel. Analysts suggest that if this momentum holds, a test of the $135,000 level is highly probable before October concludes.