Ethereum (ETH) is up 3.57% this week, trading near $2,540—but the road to $5,000 looks tougher than bulls hope. While optimism lingers, key on-chain, volume, and developer signals suggest the next major rally isn’t imminent.

Red Flag #1: Developer Activity Collapses

📉 65% drop in code commits since mid-May (from 71 to ~25)
📉 No price impact from past dev spikes (e.g., December 2024)

Why it matters:

• Declining innovation = weaker long-term price support
• Hype ≠ fundamentals

Red Flag #2: Long-Term Holders Losing Conviction

📊 HODL Waves show:

• Fewer ETH held in 6+ month wallets
• More ETH in 1-6 month bands (swing traders, not diamond hands)

Translation: If ETH stalls, weak hands may sell.

Red Flag #3: Smart Money Isn’t Buying

💰 Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) flatlined after April-May rally
💰 No major accumulation since ETH hit $2,700

Price Outlook: Resistance vs. Support

🔴 Bearish Scenario:

• Rejection at $2,647 resistance
• Fall to $2,467 (breakdown risk to $2,376)

🟢 Bullish Invalidation Needed:

• Flip $2,647 → support
• Surge past $2,800 (requires volume + CMF recovery)

Bottom Line

For ETH to hit $5,000, it needs:
✅ Developer momentum
✅ Long-term holder confidence
✅ Smart money accumulation

Right now? None are present.