Ethereum price dropped 10 % and trades below $4 000. Small traders sell, yet large holders bought $1.7 billion of ETH in three days. The daily RSI now sits lower than at any time since April, a level that preceded a 134 % climb during the following two months.
Key Levels in Play for Ethereum Price
The $3 800 – $3 900 area has held so far. Lark Davis notes that loss of this zone would cancel the upward forecast – if the level holds and mood improves, price may reach $7 000 – $8 000 within a few months.
- Support: $3,800–$3,900 (holding so far).
- Risk: Losing this zone cancels the bullish setup.
- Upside Target: If support holds, Lark Davis sees ETH climbing to $7K–$8K in coming months.
Bullish Signals Emerging
Lookonchain shows sixteen wallets that withdrew 431 018 ETH from Kraken besides OKX between 5 and 7 September. The transfers cost $1.73 billion and left the coins in cold storage, a pattern that in past crashes marked local bottoms.
Seasonal data add another tail wind. September often closes in the red, yet the fourth quarter has finished higher in most years. Michael van de Poppe adds that the first quarter has delivered the strongest average return since 2016.
- RSI oversold: At its lowest since April, right before ETH rallied 134%.
- Whale buying: 16 wallets pulled 431,018 ETH ($1.73B) off Kraken & OKX into cold storage.
- Seasonality: September often weak, but Q4 is historically strong, with Q1 the best since 2016.
The Verdict
Oversold momentum, record whale inflows and the calendar together set up a rare alignment. A daily close below $3 800 would void the setup – until then, the path of least resistance points upward.
