Bitcoin is currently trading at $109,500, caught between two starkly different predictions:

• Peter Brandt sees a breakout to $140,000
• Arthur Hayes warns of a crash to $90,000

With CPI data and the July Fed meeting looming, Bitcoin’s next major move could be decided this week.

The Bull Case: $140K Target

Veteran trader Peter Brandt recently shared a cryptic Bitcoin chart on X, hinting at a potential breakout. His analysis suggests:
✅ Bitcoin is tracking the Global M2 money supply (now at $55.48T)
✅ The current technical setup resembles past bull runs
✅ $104K support holding strong before next leg up

Supporting this bullish view:

• BTC trading volume up 20% to $56B
• Futures open interest rising 7.28%
• Market pricing in potential Fed rate cut

The Bear Warning: $90K Risk

Arthur Hayes (Maelstrom CIO) takes the opposite view, predicting:
⚠️ Sideways-to-lower movement until August’s Jackson Hole event
⚠️ Potential drop to $90K-$95K due to Treasury liquidity pressures

Hayes’ firm has already:

• Liquidated all illiquid altcoins
• May reduce Bitcoin exposure if conditions worsen

Key Events That Could Move Bitcoin

This week’s economic calendar is packed with potential catalysts:
1️⃣ June CPI Data (Today)

• Higher inflation = Bullish for BTC (stores of value)
• Lower inflation = Could delay Fed cuts

2️⃣ Fed Rate Decision (July)

• Dovish tone = BTC rally likely
• Hawkish surprise = Short-term dip possible

3️⃣ Jackson Hole Symposium (August)

• Powell’s speech could shift market expectations

What Traders Should Watch

• $104K support: Holds = Bullish, Breaks = Bearish
• CPI reaction: Immediate price movement likely
• Fed language: Future guidance matters more than the rate decision itself