Bitcoin is navigating a perfect storm of institutional selling, and veteran analysts warn the worst may not be over. With Bitcoin price decline over 22.5% in a week to $69,000—erasing 15 months of gains—the market is bracing for a deeper correction. The driving force behind this move isn’t retail panic, but what trader Peter Brandt calls “campaign selling”: a deliberate, sustained distribution by large holders.
Examining the Forces Behind the Bitcoin Price Decline
Two major supply sources are amplifying the downtrend. First, Bitcoin miners have shifted to net distribution, consistently sending more coins to exchanges throughout January to cover operational costs amid lower prices. Second, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF have reduced their collective holdings, with net BTC balances dropping from 1.29 million to 1.27 million since the start of the year.
This combination is creating sustained downward pressure during a period of fragile sentiment. The lack of strong dip-buying, evidenced by a sequence of lower highs and lows, suggests the market is still searching for a true bottom.
Where Could Bitcoin Find a Bottom?
Brandt’s analysis points to an immediate bear flag target near $63,800, roughly 10% below current levels. However, a more significant zone is forming much lower. On-chain analyst GugaOnChain identifies $54,600 as a critical accumulation zone, aligned with Bitcoin’s historical realized price band. This level mirrors the 2022 bottom structure around $20,000, which preceded a major rally.
My Thoughts
This is the brutal process of a market resetting to a stronger foundation. While frightening, a deeper Bitcoin price decline toward the mid-$50,000s would represent a generational buying opportunity, not a catastrophe. The “campaign selling” suggests weak institutional hands are being cleared out. For long-term holders, this is the phase where conviction is rewarded. Watch for a slowdown in miner outflows and a stabilization in ETF balances—these will be the first signs of selling exhaustion.
