Bitcoin is facing renewed selling pressure, slipping below the critical $113,000 mark on Monday. The decline highlights growing volatility and uncertainty, with weakening technical indicators and concerning on-chain data suggesting a period of exhaustion for the flagship cryptocurrency.
As of this writing, BTC is trading at $112,909, down roughly 2.5% on the day. This retreat from its weekly high near $118,000 brings its seven-day losses to 3%, as it struggles to maintain upward momentum against persistent resistance.
Weak Bitcoin Technicals Signal Bearish Sentiment
The technical picture for Bitcoin has turned cautious. Key momentum indicators are flashing warning signs:
- The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has slipped to 45.57, indicating a clear loss of bullish momentum.
- The MACD has completed a bearish crossover, reflecting a shift in sentiment among traders.
Furthermore, futures volume has surged 137.2% to $72.97 billion. This spike suggests that traders are engaging in heightened speculative activity to capitalize on the current volatility, rather than making confident long-term bets.
On-Chain Data Points to “Cycle Exhaustion”
Perhaps more concerning is the story told by on-chain metrics. According to a recent analysis by CryptoQuant researcher Joao Wedson, there are clear signs of “cycle exhaustion.”
A key metric, the SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) Trend Signal, suggests that profitability is drying up. This means that the average BTC sold is realizing less profit, indicating that investors who bought at lower prices are becoming scarce.
Wedson notes that accumulation is happening at historically high prices, which is unprecedented. Many current investors missed earlier, more favorable accumulation phases.
The Altcoin Rotation Thesis
This fatigue is leading to a notable shift in market behavior. Wedson argues that we are now in an “Altcoin Season.”
Social interest and search volume around Bitcoin are declining. Meanwhile, capital appears to be rotating out of BTC and into altcoins, using profits that were built up during Bitcoin’s earlier rallies.
The Short-Term Holder Realized Price, currently at $111,400, is now a major reference point. This level is particularly important for institutions that entered the market late and may be more sensitive to short-term price swings.
With Bitcoin’s risk-adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) weakening compared to 2024, it is becoming less attractive to large institutional players, further fueling the move toward altcoins. For now, analyst attention is shifting away from Bitcoin and toward the altcoin market for opportunities.
