The battle lines for Bitcoin’s next major move are being drawn, and the divide has never been clearer. On one side, seasoned analysts warn the recent bounce is merely a dead-cat relief rally and that new macro lows are imminent. On the other, bulls are laser-focused on two key CME futures gaps, with one sitting near $84,000, as immediate upside targets. So, which Bitcoin price outlook holds the truth?
The Bear Case: A Warning That the “Bottom Is Not In”
Despite a bounce from the $60,000 lows, skepticism runs deep. Analyst Keith Alan stated bluntly, “The $BTC bottom is not in,” emphasizing capital preservation over chasing the pump. He views the reclaim of the 2021 $69,000 all-time high as a deceptive move within a larger relief rally, warning there’s a “high probability that lower is likely.”
This is reinforced by cyclical analysis. Rekt Capital highlighted a chilling historical pattern: after a Q4 bull market peak, Bitcoin tends to see a multi-month relief rally before a breakdown into bearish acceleration. This current setup mirrors the 2022 bear market transition, suggesting “there’s more downside to come.”
The Bull Case: Targeting the $84,000 CME Gap
Meanwhile, technical traders see clear short-term opportunities. The weekend pullback created a new CME futures gap, joining a larger one near $84,000. These gaps often act as price magnets, drawing the market to fill them.
Michaël van de Poppe forecasts a path “back up again towards the CME gap” and a continuation toward $75,000+. Even Bitcoin maximalist Samson Mow pointed to the $84,000 gap as a key question for analysts, suggesting the move to fill it could happen “very soon.”
My Thoughts
This is the beautiful tension of a market in transition. The bear case is prudent, rooted in macro cycles and price structure. The bull case is tactical, driven by clear derivative market mechanics. My take? Both can be right in sequence. We could see a push to fill the $84K gap, fulfilling the bull target, before the broader bearish cycle structure plays out toward lower lows. For traders, this means riding short-term momentum with tight risk management, while long-term holders should welcome any further drop as a legendary accumulation zone. The trend will reveal itself soon.
