Bitcoin’s Consolidation Phase and Potential Fed Policy Impact: Insights and Analysis

Rekt Capital points out that Bitcoin’s current phase of consolidation, lasting 150 days post-Halving, fits into historical trends, which helps to moderate the speed at which its price is rising.

Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency globally, has shown resilience after hitting lows of $57,000 last week, now hovering around $64,000. Since the fourth Bitcoin halving last month, its price has mostly remained within a certain range.

Bitcoin’s Price Movement

Rekt Capital, a crypto analyst, identifies a recent phase of price-based capitulation, known as the Halving Retrace phase, shown by the dark blue circle. Looking ahead, attention turns to time-based capitulation expected in the ongoing Re-Accumulation phase, indicated in red. According to Rekt Capital, a consolidation period exceeding 150 days post-Halving follows typical historical patterns. Such a prolonged consolidation phase is seen as beneficial as it slows down the rate at which Bitcoin’s price surges.

This prolonged consolidation is expected to realign the current cycle with past patterns observed after previous Halving events. This alignment is viewed positively for Bitcoin’s long-term growth and market stability. In March 2024, Bitcoin saw an unprecedented surge, hitting new All-Time Highs, signaling a notable acceleration in the current cycle. This milestone came 260 days earlier than the usual trajectory seen in traditional Halving cycles.

However, Bitcoin’s momentum has slowed down since then, with the cryptocurrency trading within a range of roughly $60,000 to $70,000 for almost two months. This prolonged consolidation has moderated the cycle’s acceleration, shortening it from 260 days to 210 days compared to historical patterns.

Potential Impact of Fed’s Interest Rate Cuts

Bitcoin’s price has been supported by increasing expectations of a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with markets now pricing in a higher chance of a 25 basis point reduction in September. This shift in sentiment has bolstered cryptocurrencies, which tend to perform well in an environment marked by low-interest rates and ample liquidity. The possibility of a rate cut gains traction amid indications of a cooling labor market, giving the Fed more reason to consider monetary easing. However, this development follows a series of strong payroll reports over the past five months, highlighting the complexity of the economic situation. Moreover, inflation, a crucial metric for the Fed, remains above the central bank’s target of 2% annually, further complicating decision-making.

Later in the week, members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), such as Thomas Barkin, John Williams, and Neel Kashkari, are slated to share their perspectives, offering additional insights into the Fed’s stance on monetary policy.


Disclaimer: Not Investment Advice

it’s crucial to understand that the information provided here is not to be construed as investment advice. The crypto market is dynamic and highly speculative, and decisions should be made based on thorough personal research and consideration of individual risk tolerance. Always consult with financial professionals and conduct your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. The intention of this exploration is to present insights and trends, not to provide specific investment recommendations.

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