The market is holding its breath. Today, a massive $2.9 billion in crypto options contracts are set to expire across Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, and Solana. This convergence of expiry pressure arrives alongside two major headwinds: the US CPI inflation report and a Crypto Fear & Greed Index score of just 5— signaling extreme, gut-wrenching fear. Volatility isn’t just coming; it’s already here.
The $2.5 Billion Bitcoin Options Expiry
Deribit数据显示, nearly 38,000 BTC options (notional value: $2.5B) are expiring. The put-call ratio sits at 0.71, reflecting neutral-to-bearish positioning. The max pain price is $74,000—far above current spot around $66,450, meaning option sellers are deeply profitable. Traders are watching the $66,000 level as the line in the sand. Put volume is currently double call volume at the max pain strike.
CryptoQuant warns this is one of the top 3-5 largest capitulation events in Bitcoin’s history, rivaling the 2021 crash. Glassnode sees further downside as “conviction fades.”
Ethereum, XRP, and Solana Follow Suit
Over 210,000 ETH options ($407M) expire with a put-call ratio of 0.80 and max pain at $2,100. ETH is trading near $1,950, with traders aggressively hedging downside via puts.
XRP sees $4.26M in options expire; the put-call ratio is a bearish 0.92, with max pain at $1.50. SOL options of $8M+ expire with the highest bearish skew: a put-call ratio of 1.14 and max pain at $92.
The Macro Wildcard: CPI
Adding fuel to the fire, today’s US CPI inflation data will dictate the Fed’s next move. Hotter print = hawkish Fed = more pain for risk assets. This data drops right as options settle—a recipe for violent price discovery.
My Thoughts
Today is a liquidity event, not a fundamental collapse. Massive crypto options expiry dates like this act as pressure release valves. The extreme put skew and max pain levels far above spot suggest market makers are heavily incentivized to defend current ranges. I expect pin action toward max pain strikes (especially $74K BTC) in the coming days. However, CPI could override everything. If inflation surprises to the downside, we get a violent short squeeze. If it’s hot, $60K BTC becomes probable. Trade the volatility, don’t fight it.
