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Bitcoin ETFs inflow
Bitcoin

Bitcoin ETFs Inflow $149M as Fed Cut Looms

by Ouess
written by Ouess

The stage is set for a potentially explosive week in crypto markets. Bitcoin ETFs kicked off Monday with a strong Bitcoin ETFs inflow of $149.3 million, signaling renewed institutional confidence as multiple major catalysts converge. This substantial capital arrival comes just as the Federal Reserve meets with a 96.7% probability of delivering a rate cut.

Bitcoin ETFs Inflow

The institutional buying was led by ARK Invest, which contributed $76.4 million, followed closely by BlackRock’s $65.3 million addition. This robust Bitcoin ETFs inflow demonstrates that smart money is positioning ahead of what could be a paradigm-shifting week for global risk assets.

Bitcoin ETFs inflow
Bitcoin ETFs inflow Source : Farside Investors

Meanwhile, Bitcoin price is consolidating strategically around $114,490, building energy for a potential breakout. This technical coiling comes alongside the launch of multiple altcoin ETFs, including Solana, Litecoin, and Hedera funds, dramatically expanding the institutional product landscape.

Bitcoin ETFs inflow
BTC Price Source : TradingView

The Perfect Macro Storm

Three seismic events are aligning simultaneously. First, the Fed’s expected rate cut would inject fresh liquidity into risk assets. Second, Thursday’s Trump-Xi meeting could de-escalate trade tensions that previously crushed markets. Third, the altcoin ETF wave represents the biggest expansion of crypto investment products since January.

This convergence is particularly powerful given October’s historical tendency to be “Uptober.” After initial weakness, Bitcoin has now flipped green for the month, maintaining its perfect October record and adding seasonal momentum to the technical setup.

Key Takeaways

  • Strong Bitcoin ETFs inflow of $149.3M led by ARK and BlackRock
  • Fed meeting with 96.7% probability of rate cut this week
  • Trump-Xi trade talks Thursday could resolve major market overhang
  • Multiple altcoin ETFs launching simultaneously
  • Bitcoin consolidating at $114,490 ahead of potential breakout

My Thoughts

This is the most concentrated bullish catalyst cluster we’ve seen all year. When ETF inflows, Fed policy, geopolitical progress, and product expansion align like this, the conditions for a major leg up are undeniable. Bitcoin’s consolidation at these levels is actually bullish—it’s building energy rather than declining. If both the Fed and trade talks deliver positive outcomes, we could easily see a violent move toward $120,000+ this week.

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Bitcoin purchase
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New Strategy Bitcoin Purchase $43M as “Orange Dot” Signal Hits

by Ouess
written by Ouess

The “Orange Dot” signal has struck again. Michael Saylor’s Strategy has confirmed another major Bitcoin purchase, adding 390 BTC worth $43 million to its colossal treasury. This move comes just one day after Saylor’s trademark “It’s Orange Dot Day” tweet, continuing his pattern of cryptic accumulation hints that consistently precede official buying announcements.

Strategy Bitcoin Purchase

This latest Bitcoin purchase brings Strategy’s total holdings to 640,808 BTC, now valued at approximately $47.44 billion. The company acquired these coins at an average price of $74,032 each, representing a substantial 26% year-to-date yield on their initial investment. Notably, this marks their third consecutive weekly acquisition after a brief pause earlier this month.

Strategic Funding and Market Context

Interestingly, Strategy didn’t sell any of its MSTR shares to fund this Bitcoin purchase. Instead, the company raised $44.7 million by strategically selling other share classes (STRF, STRK, and STRD). This demonstrates sophisticated capital allocation while maintaining its core equity structure.

The buying spree comes during a critical week for global markets. All eyes are on the Federal Reserve’s upcoming FOMC meeting, where traders price in a 96.7% chance of a rate cut. Additionally, Thursday’s US-China summit between Presidents Trump and Xi could dramatically reshape trade relations, creating potential volatility across risk assets.

My Thoughts

Saylor’s consistency is becoming a market force unto itself. While $43 million is relatively small for Strategy, the psychological impact is enormous. It reinforces that the world’s most disciplined corporate buyer remains unwavering in their conviction, even at prices 54% above their average cost basis. As the Fed potentially turns dovish and trade tensions ease, this persistent institutional demand could create the perfect storm for Bitcoin’s next leg up toward $130,000.

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Bitcoin Price
Bitcoin

Bitcoin Price Surpasses $115K in Weekend Short Squeeze

by Ouess
written by Ouess

Bitcoin price just smashed through a critical barrier, surpassing $115,000 for the first time in two weeks. This powerful weekend breakout triggered a massive short squeeze, liquidating $347.5 million in bearish bets and confirming a decisive shift in market momentum.

The rally was fueled by a perfect storm of positive catalysts. First, growing optimism about a US-China trade deal framework provided a major macro tailwind. Second, traders are pricing in a near-certain 96.7% probability of a Fed rate cut this week. These factors combined to create a classic risk-on environment.

Bitcoin Price
Liquidation data Source : Coinglass

Altcoins joined the party with impressive gains. Ethereum surged 6% to break $4,180, while Solana jumped 5.7%. This broad-based strength indicates the move has depth beyond just Bitcoin dominance.

Bitcoin Price
Crypto Heat map Source : QuantifyCrypto

Bitcoin Price Sustainable Trend or Short-Term Spike?

Analysts believe this isn’t just a temporary pump. According to BTC Markets analyst Rachael Lucas, these moves represent a “sustainable trend driven by tightening on-chain supply, technical indicators, and macroeconomic support.” The liquidation of $347 million in shorts acted as rocket fuel, forcing bears to cover their positions and accelerating the upward move.

Bitcoin Price
BTC Price Source : TradingView

Looking ahead, the traditional “Christmas Rally” could provide the next leg up. Several analysts now project a move into the $130,000-$150,000 range by year-end, especially if the Fed follows through with expected rate cuts and trade tensions continue easing.

My Thoughts

This breakout is technically significant. Holding above $115,000 was crucial for maintaining the bullish structure after weeks of consolidation. The combination of a short squeeze, positive macro news, and strong altcoin participation suggests this rally has legs. With the Fed meeting and US-China talks ahead, we could be entering the most explosive phase of the 2025 bull market.

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Orange Dot Day
Bitcoin

Saylor’s “Orange Dot Day” Hints at New Bitcoin Buy

by Ouess
written by Ouess

The signal is flashing orange again. Strategy founder Michael Saylor just tweeted “It’s Orange Dot Day,” sending a clear message to the crypto market. This phrase is his not-so-secret code for corporate Bitcoin accumulation. Each “orange dot” on his company’s tracker represents a BTC purchase. Therefore, this tweet strongly suggests a new buy is imminent.

This is part of a well-established pattern. Recently, Saylor has consistently used weekend tweets like “Needs More Orange” and “Always ₿e Stacking” to signal upcoming purchases. These cryptic messages typically drop just before Strategy announces another major Bitcoin addition to its treasury. The strategy has become a ritual: hint, accumulate, then announce.

What This Means for the Market

The “Orange Dot Day” signal carries significant weight. First, it reinforces that one of Bitcoin’s largest corporate holders remains in aggressive accumulation mode. This ongoing buying pressure directly reduces available supply on the market. Second, it provides a massive sentiment boost, showing both retail and institutional investors that smart money continues to bet big on Bitcoin.

For traders, these tweets serve as a high-probability alert. History shows a formal purchase announcement often follows within days. The market now watches closely for Strategy’s next SEC filing or official press release to confirm the size of the acquisition.

My Thoughts

Saylor has mastered the art of market communication. These tweets create anticipation, drive narrative, and often precede measurable price impacts. While the exact size and timing remain unknown, the pattern is too consistent to ignore. In a market hungry for bullish catalysts, this signal reminds everyone that the most disciplined corporate buyer isn’t slowing down. It’s another psychological brick in the wall of institutional adoption.

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Bitcoin whales
Bitcoin

Bitcoin Whales Bet Big as $115K Breakout Nears

by Ouess
written by Ouess

The stakes are incredibly high for Bitcoin this week. The cryptocurrency is fighting to maintain its perfect October record, with six consecutive years of gains on the line. However, it must break above $115,000 to avoid its first red October since 2018. Meanwhile, Bitcoin whales are placing massive bets that it will succeed.

Bitcoin Whales Accumulation

On-chain data reveals a stunning accumulation spree. One anonymous wallet scooped up 3,195 BTC, worth a staggering $356.6 million, from Kraken. This enormous purchase signals extreme confidence from a major player. Furthermore, another Bitcoin whales on Hyperliquid placed a $16.6 million long bet with 40x leverage, a wildly bullish and aggressive position.

The $115,000 Battlefield

Bitcoin whales
BTC Price Source TradingView

The price action is at a critical juncture. Bitcoin is currently down 2.1% for the month, starting October around $114,000. The community is now laser-focused on the $115,000 to $116,000 resistance zone. A clean break above this level would not only secure the historic monthly green streak but could also ignite a powerful FOMO rally.

https://twitter.com/KillaXBT/status/1982058847863963855?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1982058847863963855%7Ctwgr%5E717ba803d35e387e6d5f93a4b896ea4cebe24c31%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.coinspeaker.com%2Fwhales-keep-buying-and-betting-on-bitcoin-116k-next%2F

Analysts are comparing the current consolidation to patterns seen in the 2021 bull market. However, they warn that a failure to break out soon could lead to another corrective dip. The immense whale buying provides a strong foundation, but retail participation is ultimately needed to fuel the next leg up.

My Thoughts

The whale activity is undeniably bullish. Moving $356 million off an exchange is a classic long-term accumulation signal, not short-term speculation. These players are betting on a major macro move, not a quick pump. While the monthly close adds drama, the real story is the immense institutional and whale support building at these levels. If retail FOMO finally kicks in, the move above $115,000 could be explosive.

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Bitcoin consolidates
Bitcoin

Bitcoin Consolidates Below $112K as ETF Inflows Hit $90M

by Ouess
written by Ouess

Bitcoin Consolidates on October 25, trading in a narrow 1.8% range below a key breakout threshold. The price action showed a clear battle between buyers and sellers, with resistance forming around $111,800-$111,900 and support holding near $109,800.

Despite the sideways movement, institutional demand showed steady improvement. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded their second consecutive day of inflows, adding $90.6 million on October 24. Fidelity’s FBTC led with $57.9 million, followed by BlackRock’s IBIT with $32.7 million. This consistent institutional buying represents a healthy shift in market sentiment.

Bitcoin ETF SOiurce : Farside Investors

Technical Levels to Watch

The current consolidation has established clear levels that will determine Bitcoin’s next directional move. A clean break and sustained close above $112,000 would shift focus toward the $115,000 resistance level. Conversely, a loss of the $109,800 support could trigger a retest of $108,000.

Bitcoin consolidates
BTC Price Source : TradingView

Trading volume peaked during the session at 14:00 UTC when 23,728 BTC changed hands, but cooled significantly into the close, indicating a period of equilibrium between buyers and sellers.

Bitcoin consolidates
Fear & Greed Index Source : Alternative.me

Market sentiment showed modest improvement, with the Crypto Fear and Greed Index climbing from 30 to 37. While still in “Fear” territory, the steady upward trend suggests growing confidence among investors

My Thoughts

This is a healthy consolidation after the recent CPI-driven rally. The steady ETF inflows are particularly encouraging—they show institutions are accumulating at these levels rather than chasing prices higher. The market needs to build a solid base before attempting the $112,000 breakout. If ETF flows remain positive, that breakout becomes increasingly likely in the coming sessions.

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CPI data
Story

Bitcoin Hits $111.5K as Cool CPI Data Fuels Rally

by Ouess
written by Ouess

The crypto market exploded upward on October 24, fueled by a highly anticipated economic report. Softer-than-expected CPI data sent Bitcoin soaring to $111,500, confirming that inflation is cooling in the United States. This positive surprise instantly boosted market sentiment and dramatically increased the odds of a Federal Reserve rate cut next week.

Consequently, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the October 29 Fed meeting surged to 99%. This dovish shift is a powerful tailwind for risk assets like cryptocurrency. As a result, major altcoins joined the party. Ethereum, XRP, and Binance Coin all posted solid gains between 3% and 5%.

CPI data
BTC Price Source : TradingView

Technical Outlook and Key Levels

The bullish CPI data provided the catalyst Bitcoin needed to bounce from the $110,000 support level. However, analysts warn the job isn’t finished yet. Crypto expert Ted Pillows identified the $113,000-$114,000 zone as the next critical resistance. A decisive break above this area would confirm a stronger bullish trend and open the path toward $114,000.

The report itself was a “rare exception” released during the government shutdown. It showed headline and core inflation both came in at 3.0%, slightly below forecasts. This confirmed that the disinflationary trend remains intact, giving the Fed room to ease monetary policy.

Whale Activity and Market Sentiment

Adding to the bullish setup, on-chain data revealed intriguing whale behavior. The famous “Trump Insider Whale,” known for a perfect trading record, reportedly opened $150 million in long positions ahead of the data release. This major bet suggests that sophisticated traders are positioning for a sustained upward move.

My Thoughts

This is the macro confirmation the market was desperately seeking. The clean CPI data print removes a major uncertainty and virtually guarantees a dovish Fed next week. The combination of cooling inflation, impending rate cuts, and bullish whale activity creates a perfect environment for a year-end rally. If Bitcoin can conquer the $114,000 wall, a run toward $120,000 seems likely.

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crypto market
Bitcoin

Crypto Market Awaits CPI Report as ETF Flows Rebound

by Ouess
written by Ouess

The crypto market outlook for October 24 centers on a single, critical event: the release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for September. This key inflation data, the first since the government shutdown, will heavily influence the Federal Reserve’s policy and set the tone for risk assets.

Bitcoin ETFs Inflows

Amid this anticipation, a spot of good news emerged. Bitcoin ETFs rebounded from outflows, posting $20.3 million in net inflows on October 23. This shift in sentiment was led by BlackRock’s IBIT, which attracted $107.8 million. This break in the outflow streak provides a modest bullish counterpoint to the prevailing caution.

crypto market
Bitcoin ETF Inflows Source : farside Investors

Bitcoin is currently trading around $111,000, benefiting from this improved institutional flow and building positive momentum. Technically, this sets up a potential test of the $115,000 resistance level if the CPI data proves favorable.

crypto market
BTC Price Source : TradingView

Key Takeaways

  • The crypto market outlook is dominated by the upcoming US CPI report.
  • Bitcoin ETFs saw a rebound with $20.3M in inflows, led by BlackRock.
  • BTC trades near $111K, with growing momentum for a push to $115K.
  • The market’s next major move is highly dependent on the inflation data.

My Thoughts

All roads lead to the CPI print today. A cooler-than-expected number could validate the recent ETF inflow rebound and trigger the push toward $115,000. However, a hot inflation report would likely crush this fragile recovery. The positive ETF flow is a welcome sign, but it’s a minor factor compared to the macro wave that the CPI data will unleash.

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Trump Xi meeting
Story

Bitcoin Rises 3% as Trump Xi Meeting Announced

by Ouess
written by Ouess

Bitcoin jumped significantly on October 24, breaking past $111,000. This 3% surge came directly after the White House confirmed a planned Trump Xi meeting. The news ignited optimism that the two leaders could de-escalate recent trade tensions.

The announcement provided a clear catalyst for the rally. Consequently, risk assets across the board found renewed strength. This Trump Xi meeting will be the first in-person talk between the presidents since Trump returned to office. It is scheduled to take place in Washington later this month.

This diplomatic development is crucial for markets. Previously, Trump’s 100% tariff announcement on China triggered a massive crypto crash. Therefore, this new dialogue offers hope for a calmer economic relationship. The talks are expected to cover trade imbalances, tariffs, and supply-chain issues.

Trump Xi meeting
BTC Price Source : TradingView

Broader Market Impact

The Trump Xi meeting injected short-term confidence into a nervous market. Furthermore, it aligns with growing anticipation that the Federal Reserve will end its quantitative tightening program. This combination of positive geopolitical and monetary news is a powerful bullish driver.

The White House press secretary reiterated a firm stance on fair trade. However, the mere fact that dialogue is happening was enough to shift market sentiment. Traders are clearly betting that communication will prevent a further escalation into a full-blown trade war.

My Thoughts

This is a classic “hope rally” based on the potential for improved relations. The market’s violent reaction to the original tariff threat shows how sensitive crypto is to U.S.-China relations. While the meeting doesn’t guarantee a deal, it opens a door that was previously slamming shut. If progress seems likely, this could be the foundation for a sustained Q4 rally, especially with a dovish Fed also in the picture.

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ETF outflows
Story

ETF Outflows Resume as Market Sentiment Sours

by Ouess
written by Ouess

The mood shifted quickly in crypto markets. After a promising rebound, ETF outflows have returned. This reversal signals that institutional confidence remains fragile.

Bitcoin ETF Outflows

On October 22, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $101.3 million leave the funds. This completely erased the previous day’s $477 million inflow.

ETF outflows
Bitcoin ETF Outflows Source : Farside Investors

The data reveals a divided picture. BlackRock’s IBIT stood strong with $73.6 million in inflows. However, this positive move was overwhelmed by withdrawals from other major funds. Fidelity’s FBTC and Grayscale’s GBTC both saw around $56 million in redemptions. Consequently, the overall trend turned negative.

Ethereum Follows the Same Pattern

The story was similar for Ethereum ETFs. They recorded $18.8 million in ETF outflows. This ended their own brief recovery from the day before. Once again, BlackRock was the lone winner. Its ETHA product attracted $110.7 million. However, Grayscale’s Ethereum funds faced $80 million in combined withdrawals.

ETF outflows
Ethereum ETF Outflows Source : Farside Investors

This return of ETF outflows highlights a broader market issue. Demand appears shallow and easily shaken. Furthermore, trading volume across all funds dropped significantly. This indicates that investors are sitting on the sidelines, unsure of the next direction.

Prices Struggle for Momentum

The price action reflects this caution. Bitcoin is trading around $109,783, struggling to break out of a narrow range. It has formed a pattern of lower highs since early October. Therefore, it needs a decisive break above $112,000 to revive bullish momentum.

ETF outflows
BTC Price Source : TradingView

Ethereum faces the same challenge. It is stuck near $3,869, unable to hold above $3,900. Both assets lack the volume and conviction for a sustained recovery. The total crypto market cap remains below its recent peaks as a result.

ETF outflows
ETH Price Source : TradingView

My Thoughts on ETF Outflows

This is a classic “two-steps-forward, one-step-back” recovery. The brief inflows were encouraging, but the quick return of ETF outflows shows the market isn’t out of the woods yet. Institutions are clearly trading these ETFs tactically rather than buying and holding. The market needs a strong catalyst, like a dovish Fed or positive CPI data, to break this cycle of shallow rallies and swift profit-taking.

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