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crypto

Record $1.73B Crypto ETP Outflows Signal Deep Fear

by Ouess January 26, 2026

written by Ouess

The institutional mood has turned sharply negative. After weeks of strong inflows, crypto exchange-traded products (ETPs) just suffered one of their worst weeks on record. A massive $1.73 billion flooded out of these funds, marking the largest weekly exodus since November 2025. This dramatic reversal reveals deep-seated fear is now overriding greed in the professional investment arena.

Breaking Down the Massive Crypto ETP Outflows
The selling was heavily concentrated. Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) products alone saw a combined $1.72 billion in outflows. This suggests institutions are rapidly de-risking their core holdings amid a “sideways” market and fading hopes for near-term rate cuts. James Butterfill of CoinShares pinpointed the cause: “Dwindling expectations for interest rate cuts, negative price momentum and disappointment that digital assets have not participated in the debasement trade yet have likely fuelled these outflows.”

Interestingly, the bearish sentiment wasn’t universal. Solana (SOL) ETPs defied the trend, attracting $17.1 million in inflows. Chainlink (LINK) products also saw minor positive flows. This indicates a potential rotation within the digital asset space, as some investors seek alpha in select altcoins while fleeing the mega-caps.

Institutional Players Driving the Sell-Off
The outflows were led by the biggest names in traditional finance. BlackRock’s iShares ETFs bled $951 million, followed by Fidelity ($469M) and Grayscale ($270M). Geographically, the United States was the epicenter of the selling, accounting for $1.8 billion in outflows. Consequently, total assets under management (AUM) for crypto funds plunged from $193 billion to $178 billion in just one week.

My Thoughts
This is a clear institutional risk-off signal. While retail can be fickle, these flows represent smart money positioning. The sheer scale suggests a deeper correction may be underway as liquidity tightens. However, the Solana inflows are a critical silver lining—they show capital isn’t leaving crypto entirely, but rotating. This is typical late-cycle behavior. For investors, this flush could create a stronger foundation for the next leg up, but caution is warranted until the outflow trend breaks.

January 26, 2026 0 comment

Regulation

Crypto Market Risks: White House Threatens CLARITY Act Support

by Ouess January 17, 2026

written by Ouess

Political Storm Rocks Crypto: Market Risks Spike as White House Turns on CLARITY Act

The crypto market is navigating a sudden political minefield. Significant new crypto market risks emerged over the weekend as the White House threatened to withdraw its support for the crucial CLARITY Act, throwing the landmark bill into chaos and triggering a broad market sell-off. Bitcoin retreated toward $93,000 and then it did get back to $95,000 , Ethereum dipped below $3,300, and total market capitalization slid to $3.22 trillion as uncertainty rattled investors.

The dramatic turn stems from a fierce backlash against Coinbase, which publicly withdrew its support for the bill’s current language. The White House labeled this a “rug pull” and expressed fury that one company would seemingly dictate terms for the entire industry. This political brinksmanship has stalled the bill’s progress, creating a vacuum of regulatory clarity that markets despise. The administration is now pushing for renewed negotiations to bridge the gap between crypto innovators and the traditional banking sector.

🚨SCOOP: The White House is considering pulling its support for the crypto market structure bill entirely if @coinbase does not come back to the table with a yield agreement that satisfies the banks and gets everyone to a deal, a source close to the Trump administration tells me.…
— Eleanor Terrett (@EleanorTerrett) January 17, 2026

Analyzing the Root of the Crypto Market Risks

The core conflict is over stablecoin regulation. Coinbase argues the bill’s current draft would cripple the growing $308+ billion stablecoin industry by preventing exchanges from offering interest. Banks counter that this would trigger massive deposit outflows, harming their ability to lend. This stalemate has exposed a deep rift, even within crypto: while Coinbase opposes the bill, companies like Robinhood, Kraken, and Ripple Labs have expressed support, believing its passage is vital for long-term clarity.

While the crypto bill might be delayed to keep working on it, I am very confident that a bill will get done soon. I have spoken to over 10 senators on both sides of the aisle in the past 24 hrs and I believe they all are working in good faith to get something done. Always gets…
— Mike Novogratz (@novogratz) January 14, 2026

Despite the panic, traders are cautiously optimistic. Prediction markets like Polymarket currently give the bill a 55% chance of passing, up from 40% earlier this month. The consensus is that this public clash is a painful but necessary negotiation tactic. The CLARITY Act remains the most significant piece of comprehensive crypto legislation since the 2025 stablecoin-focused GENIUS Act, making its fate a direct proxy for U.S. regulatory sentiment.

My Thoughts

This is high-stakes political theater, not a death knell for regulation. The sell-off is an emotional reaction to headlines, but the underlying truth is that both sides need a deal. The White House wants a legislative win; the industry needs certainty. This public friction likely pushes us toward a more compromised, passable bill. For investors, this volatility is a test of conviction. The long-term thesis—that crypto is moving from regulatory grey area to codified law—remains intact, even if the path is messier than hoped.

January 17, 2026 0 comment

Story

Crypto Market Caution Grows on Trump Colombia Threat

by Ouess January 5, 2026

written by Ouess

Geopolitical Heat Rises: Crypto Market Watches Trump’s Colombia Threat

A new wave of geopolitical uncertainty is testing digital asset investors. Following the strike in Venezuela, former President Donald Trump has now openly threatened military action against Colombia, criticizing its government over drug smuggling. This escalation has injected a fresh dose of risk into global markets, yet the crypto reaction has been notably muted so far. This environment is breeding a state of watchful crypto market caution.

NOW – Trump says "It sounds good to me," when asked whether there will be a U.S. operation on Columbia. "Colombia is very sick too, run by a sick man who likes making cocaine and selling it to the United States, and he's not going to be doing it very long, let me tell you." pic.twitter.com/9Rf2lFMm7F
— Disclose.tv (@disclosetv) January 5, 2026

Trump stated Colombia is “run by a sick man” who won’t be in power “very long,” directly targeting President Gustavo Petro. These comments extend his earlier warnings to Mexico, creating a tense regional backdrop. Historically, such escalations trigger volatility in risk assets like crypto. However, the current response has been surprisingly subdued, suggesting a potential shift in how the market prices in geopolitical risk.

Analyzing the Current Crypto Market Caution

Why the tempered reaction? First, the market may view this as rhetorical posturing rather than an imminent action, especially following the swift Venezuela operation. Second, and more importantly, Bitcoin recently demonstrated resilience by holding above $91,000 during the Venezuela event. This established a precedent that not every geopolitical headline will cause a crash

The crypto market caution is present but balanced. Tools like the Fear & Greed Index show neutral readings, not extreme fear. This indicates seasoned investors are waiting for concrete developments rather than selling on speculation. Furthermore, history shows crypto can initially dip on conflict news but then recover as it becomes a financial tool for those in affected regions, as seen during the Ukraine war.

My Thoughts

This muted reaction is quietly bullish. It signals that crypto, particularly Bitcoin, is maturing as a macro asset. The market is learning to discern between noise and genuinely disruptive events. This selective resilience could attract more institutional capital that previously feared crypto’s volatility was tied to every headline. However, caution is still warranted. If tensions escalate into a broader, multi-front conflict, all risk assets—including crypto—would likely face pressure. For now, the market’s calm is a sign of strength.

January 5, 2026 0 comment

Story

Fed Rate Cut Delivered, But “Stealth QE” Is the Real Story

by Ouess December 10, 2025

written by Ouess

Fed Rate Cut Delivered as Expected, But “Stealth QE” Steals the Show

The third Fed rate cut of 2025 is now official, but the real market-moving news lies in an unannounced pivot toward liquidity injection. While the Federal Reserve lowered rates by 25 basis points as predicted, its simultaneous launch of a $40 billion Treasury bill purchase program represents a “stealth” form of quantitative easing (QE) that could unleash a powerful wave of capital into risk assets like crypto.

Read Chair Powell's full opening statement from the #FOMC press conference (PDF): https://t.co/CXUICXsEwv pic.twitter.com/wKBVkn9DfK
— Federal Reserve (@federalreserve) December 10, 2025

The Decision: A Hawkish-Dovish Tightrope
The FOMC voted 9-3 to cut the target range to 3.50%-3.75%, aligning with the 90% probability priced in by markets. However, the dissenting votes reveal underlying tension: two members wanted no cut, while one advocated for a more aggressive 50 bps reduction. This split sets the stage for Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference, where he must balance acknowledging softening labor data (justifying cuts) against still-stubborn inflation above the 2% target. The committee’s median projection suggests only one more cut in 2026, signaling a cautious, data-dependent path ahead.

The Bigger Story: “Stealth QE” via $40B T-Bill Purchases
Beyond the rate cut, the Fed’s balance sheet move is crucial. Starting December 12, the central bank will purchase up to $40 billion in Treasury bills over 30 days. Experts are calling this “Reserve Management” that functions identically to QE—it directly injects liquidity into the financial system’s plumbing. For crypto, this is a fundamental bullish catalyst. More dollar liquidity historically weakens the currency and strengthens alternative, scarce assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum.

🔴 Fed: We will buy $40 billion of treasury bills over the next 30 days.

The printers are warming up.
QE is back on the menu.

Gold and Silver … 🧐 pic.twitter.com/P393TlbCPU
— Wall Street Mav (@WallStreetMav) December 10, 2025

Market Impact: Short-Term Caution, Long-Term Tailwinds
Immediately, the market’s focus will parse Powell’s tone. A hawkish emphasis on inflation vigilance could cause short-term volatility. However, the structural reality is clear: the easing cycle is underway, and the Fed’s balance sheet is expanding again. This combination creates a powerful macro tailwind for crypto. The Fed rate cut lowers the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, while the T-bill purchases add fresh dollars to the system seeking returns.

My Thoughts
The Fed is trying to have it both ways: a cautious, “hawkish cut” on rates while quietly turning the liquidity taps back on. For savvy crypto investors, the T-bill purchase is the true headline. It confirms that upward pressure on asset prices is an explicit policy outcome. While Powell may talk tough to manage inflation expectations, the Fed’s actions speak louder—liquidity is coming. This environment is ideal for Bitcoin’s “hard asset” narrative and should fuel the next leg of the institutional adoption cycle. Short-term noise, long-term signal: bullish.

December 10, 2025 0 comment

Bitcoin

Corporate Bitcoin Acquisition: Strategy Adds 10,624 BTC in $962M Buy

by Ouess December 8, 2025

written by Ouess

Another Masterclass in Corporate Bitcoin Acquisition as Strategy Buys $962 Million Worth of BTC

In a staggering display of conviction, Michael Saylor’s Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) has executed another monumental corporate Bitcoin acquisition, purchasing 10,624 BTC for approximately $962.7 million after yesterday Hint by Saylor. This move, funded by the strategic sale of its own equity, defies broader market anxieties and reinforces the company’s blueprint for building an unshakeable Bitcoin-centric treasury, all while its newly established cash buffer shields its holdings from forced sales.

Strategy has acquired 10,624 BTC for ~$962.7 million at ~$90,615 per bitcoin and has achieved BTC Yield of 24.7% YTD 2025. As of 12/7/2025, we hodl 660,624 $BTC acquired for ~$49.35 billion at ~$74,696 per bitcoin. $MSTR $STRC $STRK $STRF $STRD $STRE https://t.co/oyLwSuW7nW
— Michael Saylor (@saylor) December 8, 2025

The Numbers: A Colossal Addition to the Fortress Balance Sheet
The scale of this purchase is immense. The company acquired the BTC at an average price of $90,615, bringing its total holdings to 660,624 Bitcoin. Its average cost basis remains a conservative $74,696 per coin, locking in substantial unrealized gains. Funding was raised intelligently through the sale of MSTR and STRD stock, proving Saylor’s model of using accretive equity sales to perpetually strengthen the Bitcoin treasury. This is not desperate buying; it’s systematic, strategic capital allocation.

The Strategic Backstop: Why This Buy is Different
This purchase carries new weight following CEO Phong Le’s recent clarification on the company’s $1.44 billion dollar reserve. That war chest is designed to cover 21 months of dividends, explicitly built to avoid selling Bitcoin for at least three years, even in a severe downturn. This context transforms the buy from a risky bet into a protected, long-term strategic move. The company has effectively walled off its operational liabilities from its Bitcoin treasury, allowing it to accumulate through any cycle without pressure to liquidate.

Market Impact and Validation from Finance Heavyweights

The market reacted positively, with both BTC and MSTR stock rising on the news. The acquisition drew public praise from figures like Anthony Scaramucci, who hailed Saylor’s playbook of “building a USD backstop and then selling equity to buy BTC” as genius for both the company’s balance sheet and the broader Bitcoin network. This corporate Bitcoin acquisition serves as a powerful signal to other public companies: there is a clear, repeatable model for integrating Bitcoin as a primary treasury asset without jeopardizing corporate obligations.

He’s the man. Builds a US dollar backstop and then gets back to selling equity to buy btc which further strengthens balance sheet. the equity sales are accretive (albeit barely) but v smart for his balance sheet — and overall btc market. really smart stuff https://t.co/nLL8oh1wko
— Anthony Scaramucci (@Scaramucci) December 8, 2025

My Thoughts
This isn’t just a purchase; it’s a statement of sovereignty over corporate finance. Saylor is demonstrating that with proper risk management (the dollar reserve), a company can permanently opt out of traditional treasury management and into a Bitcoin standard. This massive buy, executed while many traders fear a bear market, shows profound long-term conviction. It also soaks up nearly a billion dollars of sell-side liquidity, providing a formidable floor for the market. Every such corporate Bitcoin acquisition makes the asset scarcer for the rest of the world and validates it further as the ultimate balance sheet asset.

December 8, 2025 0 comment

Story

Fed Rate Cut Odds Soar to 85% for December

by Ouess November 25, 2025

written by Ouess

Fed Rate Cut Odds Skyrocket to 85%, Fueling Bitcoin Rally to $89K

The macro stars are aligning for a massive crypto rally. Fed rate cut odds for a December rate reduction have surged to a stunning 85%, according to the latest CME FedWatch data. This marks a dramatic reversal from just weeks ago when probabilities languished near 30%. The soaring Fed rate cut odds have already acted as rocket fuel for Bitcoin, propelling it from last week’s low of $81,000 to a high near $89,000. For crypto investors, this signals that the era of cheap money may be returning sooner than anyone expected.

What’s Driving the Insane Fed Rate Cut Odds?

Two key factors are pushing the Fed toward another cut: a softening labor market and supportive commentary from Powell’s inner circle. The latest PPI inflation data, while mixed, confirmed that the weakening job market is becoming the central bank’s primary concern. U.S. private payrolls have shown a significant deterioration, declining by an average of 13,500 weekly in recent weeks. More importantly, key Fed allies are publicly making the case for easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly explicitly supports a December cut, citing that a labor-market decline is “harder to contain than a rise in inflation.” New York Fed President John Williams has also signaled room for another near-term cut.

BREAKING: September PPI inflation rises to 2.7%, above expectations of 2.6%.

Core PPI inflation fell to 2.6%, below expectations of 2.7%.

PPI inflation remains LESS of a problem than the weakening labor market.

We see a December rate cut on its way.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) November 25, 2025

Bitcoin’s Proven Reaction to Fed Cuts

History provides a compelling blueprint for what happens next. Bitcoin famously surged to new all-time highs just before the Fed’s previous rate cuts in September and October. The market is clearly anticipating a repeat performance. This relationship exists because lower interest rates increase the appeal of risk-on, non-yielding assets like Bitcoin. They also weaken the U.S. dollar, making dollar-denominated cryptocurrencies cheaper for international investors. With Fed Chair Powell having no public speeches scheduled before the December 10 FOMC meeting, the narrative is being set by his dovish colleagues, creating a powerful, uncontested bullish narrative.

My Thoughts

This is the ultimate macro tailwind. An 85% probability is as close to a guarantee as you get in economics. The market is now pricing in this liquidity injection, and Bitcoin is leading the charge. I expect this momentum to build throughout November, potentially pushing BTC past $90,000 before the actual decision. For altcoins, this creates a rising tide that could lift all boats, especially those with strong institutional ETF narratives like SOL and XRP. The stage is set for a powerful year-end rally.

November 25, 2025 0 comment

Story

Crypto Market Rally Ignites as Investors Buy Dip

by Ouess November 23, 2025

written by Ouess

Crypto Market Rally Explodes as Bitcoin Jumps 8% and Altcoins Soar

The crypto market is roaring back to life! In a stunning reversal, the total market cap surged 3% to over $2.9 trillion, with Bitcoin leading the charge by rocketing to $86,000—a nearly 8% bounce from its yearly low. This powerful crypto market rally isn’t just about BTC; altcoins like Zcash, Monero, and Aerodrome Finance exploded by more than 10% in 24 hours. So, what’s fueling this massive rebound? Let’s dig into the alpha.

What’s Fueling This Crypto Market Rally?

Simply put, investors are screaming “buy the dip!” After weeks of brutal selling, the market became severely oversold. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for crypto hit a rock-bottom 25 this week, a classic signal that a bounce was imminent. Meanwhile, traditional markets also green, with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 posting solid gains. This risk-on sentiment spilled over into crypto, triggering a wave of bargain hunting. However, savvy traders are watching closely; this could be a “bull trap” where prices briefly rebound before falling again. So, proceed with caution but don’t miss the momentum.

On-Chain Data and Futures Signal Strong Support

The fundamentals back up this crypto market rally. Critical on-chain data shows stablecoins flowing back into exchanges, with balances rising to $86 billion. This is huge because it represents dry powder ready to deploy into crypto assets. Additionally, futures open interest jumped 3.3% to $125 billion, while liquidations plummeted 88% to just $207 million. For beginners, open interest measures total active derivatives trades, and its rise indicates renewed confidence. Lower liquidations mean fewer forced sells, creating a healthier environment for prices to climb.

ETF Mania: The Next Rocket Fuel

🚨BREAKING: Franklin Templeton and Grayscale #XRP ETFs are set to launch tomorrow after NYSE approval! pic.twitter.com/1OrrtRk9LF
— JackTheRippler ©️ (@RippleXrpie) November 23, 2025

Get ready for more fireworks! A major catalyst is just days away. Giants like Grayscale, 21Shares, and Franklin Templeton are set to launch their XRP ETFs this week, following strong demand that has already pushed cumulative inflows past $400 million. Plus, Grayscale and 21Shares have Dogecoin ETFs in the pipeline. These products open the floodgates for institutional money, providing regulated exposure to altcoins and potentially supercharging this crypto market rally.

My Thoughts
This rally feels like the real deal, but it’s not without risks. The combination of technical oversold conditions, improving futures data, and imminent ETF catalysts creates a perfect storm for a sustained move upward. I believe the worst of the sell-off is behind us, and we’re setting up for a strong year-end finish. However, keep an eye on Bitcoin’s ability to hold $86k; a break above could trigger altseason explosively.

November 23, 2025 0 comment

Bitcoin

Bitcoin ETF Outflows Hit $903M as Price Tumbles

by Ouess November 21, 2025

written by Ouess

Bitcoin ETF Outflows Explode to $903M as Institutional Profit-Taking Intensifies

The floodgates have opened. U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs just witnessed a devastating $903 million in net outflows, marking the second-largest single-day exodus since these funds launched in January. This massive institutional sell-off, led by BlackRock’s IBIT and Grayscale’s GBTC, slammed Bitcoin’s price and sent shockwaves through the entire crypto market. Simultaneously, Ethereum ETFs extended their brutal outflow streak to eight consecutive days, bleeding another $262 million. This is a clear signal that major players are hitting the sell button.

Institutions Drive the Sell-Off in Major Bitcoin ETF Outflows

The data paints an unambiguous picture: this is a coordinated institutional retreat. Analysts confirms these Bitcoin ETF outflows represent classic “risk-off positioning,” with large investors securing profits before the year-end. Rachael Lucas, a crypto analyst at BTC Markets, echoed this, stating, “Institutional investors are leading the charge, with ETF outflows signalling profit-taking.” This isn’t retail panic; this is smart money moving to the sidelines amid macroeconomic uncertainty and miner selling pressure.

A Contrarian Opportunity Emerges from the Carnage

However, within every crisis lies an opportunity. Przemysław Kral, CEO of zondacrypto, noted that while the Bitcoin ETF outflows indicate profit-taking, large Bitcoin holders (whales) are actively accumulating at these lower prices. He described this as a “sign of underlying strength and confidence.” This creates a fascinating divergence: institutions are selling the ETF product, while crypto-native whales are buying the underlying asset on-chain. For long-term investors, this volatility presents a chance to accumulate BTC at a significant discount from recent highs, though Kral wisely cautions that high volatility and a shifting macro landscape require careful risk management.

My Thoughts

This is a brutal but necessary flush. The Bitcoin ETF outflows are painful in the short term, but they are cleansing the market of weak institutional hands. The simultaneous whale accumulation is the ultimate bullish counter-signal. History shows that when ETFs see massive outflows and coins move from weak holders to strong ones, it often sets the stage for a powerful V-shaped recovery. The fear is palpable, but for those with a multi-year horizon, this is a gift.

November 21, 2025 0 comment

Bitcoin

Bitcoin Price Crash Below $100K, Triggers $709M Liquidation

by Ouess November 13, 2025

written by Ouess

The dam has broken. In a brutal wave of selling, the Bitcoin price crash intensified, sending BTC plummeting to $98,573 and decisively shattering the critical $100,000 support level.

Blood in the Streets: Bitcoin Price Crash Below $100K Triggers $709M Liquidation Carnage

This collapse triggered a liquidation bloodbath, wiping out $709.’ million from leveraged traders across the market within 24 hours. A staggering $583 million of that total came from vaporized long positions, as bulls who bet on the $100K floor were utterly annihilated. This marks the third time BTC has traded below $100,000 in November, confirming a severe 22% correction from its October high and ending a historic 189-day streak of closes above that psychological level.

Behind the Bitcoin Price Crash: US Selling and ETF Outflows

So, what fueled this violent move? On-chain data points directly to a resurgence of selling pressure from the United States. Analyst Satoshi Stacker highlighted that the “Coinbase $BTC discount indicates that US-based selling has reaccelerated,” meaning American investors were offloading coins at a lower price than on other global exchanges. This selling was likely compounded by ongoing redemptions from spot Bitcoin ETFs, creating a perfect storm of institutional and retail capitulation. The $100,000 level, which had acted as a massive liquidity pool, transformed from support into resistance, accelerating the downward spiral.

https://twitter.com/eth_taco/status/1989026290217676978?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1989041838359978323%7Ctwgr%5E37b5bd8d99e3a0ef42c8595e6268aeb1c87f0358%7Ctwcon%5Es2_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.coinspeaker.com%2Fbitcoin-drops-below-100k-triggers-657-million-crypto-liquidations%2F

Market-Wide Carnage and Trader Sentiment

The pain was felt across the entire crypto board. Ethereum dropped to $3,168, Solana crumbled to $141, and XRP slid to $2.82. The scale of the long liquidations marks one of the largest forced closure events in Q4 2025. The sentiment among prediction markets has turned deeply bearish, with Polymarket traders assigning a 68% probability that Bitcoin will fall to $95,000 before the month ends. This Bitcoin price crash has clearly shaken trader confidence, with many now bracing for more downside.

What’s Next? The Battle for the Next Support Level

With the $100,000 support conclusively broken, the next major line in the sand is the $95,000 level. A break below that could open the door for a deeper correction. For any hope of a reversal, bulls must now reclaim $100,000 as support—a task that will require significant buying pressure to absorb the remaining sell orders. Until then, the path of least resistance remains downward. This Bitcoin price crash is a stark reminder of the market’s volatility and the dangers of over-leverage.

My Thoughts

This is a painful but necessary cleanse. The market was over-leveraged and overly reliant on the $100K support. This flush, while brutal, removes weak hands and creates a healthier foundation for the next leg up. I’m watching for signs of seller exhaustion and a reclaim of $100K. For long-term believers, this is a potential accumulation zone, but caution is warranted until volatility subsides and a clear bottom is formed.

November 13, 2025 0 comment

Story

December Fed Rate Cut in Doubt, Crypto Stalls

by Ouess November 13, 2025

written by Ouess

The wind is shifting for monetary policy, and it’s creating headwinds for crypto. The probability of a December Fed rate cut has plunged to just 53%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, marking a new low after sitting as high as 70% last month.

December Fed Rate Cut Odds Plummet, Stalling Crypto Momentum

This growing uncertainty has put a lid on Bitcoin’s momentum, trapping the price in a tight range despite other positive catalysts like the ended government shutdown. With a 46% chance that rates hold steady, the market is now grappling with the possibility of only two rate cuts in 2025, leaving a key bullish macro driver in question.

Inflation Fears Drive the Fed’s Hawkish Pivot

So, why the sudden doubt? The narrative from Federal Reserve officials has turned decidedly more hawkish. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic recently emphasized that inflation remains the “greater risk,” and he favors holding rates steady until there’s a clear path back to the 2% target. This sentiment is echoed by other key voices like John Williams and Austan Goolsbee, who have expressed concerns that inflation is stubbornly high. Their collective caution suggests the Fed is prioritizing its inflation fight over supporting the economy, making a December Fed rate cut far from a sure thing.

The Data Blackout Complicating the Picture

Making matters more complex is a significant data gap caused by the recent government shutdown. White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre indicated that key October data, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and jobs reports, may never be released. This leaves the Fed flying partially blind heading into its December meeting, likely encouraging a “wait-and-see” approach rather than an assertive rate cut. Without this critical inflation and employment data, the case for a preemptive cut is much harder to make.

Market Impact: Bitcoin’s Bullish Macro Backdrop Fades

The implications for crypto are direct. Bitcoin’s powerful rallies leading into the September and October cuts were fueled by the anticipation of looser monetary policy. Now, with the December Fed rate cut in serious doubt, that tailwind has vanished. This uncertainty is a primary reason BTC has struggled to break out of its consolidation, even with the resolution of the government shutdown. The market is stuck, waiting for the next clear signal from the Fed on the path of interest rates.

My Thoughts

While this delay is frustrating for bulls in the short term, it doesn’t break the long-term cycle. The Fed is still in a cutting cycle, just a slower one than the market hoped for. This pushes the timeline for the next major liquidity-driven rally further out, but it doesn’t cancel it. For now, crypto will need to find its footing based on its own organic catalysts—like ETF inflows and adoption trends—rather than relying on the Fed. Patience is key.

November 13, 2025 0 comment

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