Bitcoin Price Recovery Ignites as Fed Rate Cut Odds Soar to 85%
The bulls are finally back in charge. Bitcoin has mounted a powerful Bitcoin price recovery, surging past the critical $91,000 level with a 4.35% gain in 24 hours. This breakout from a brutal monthly downtrend is fueled by one major catalyst: skyrocketing expectations for a December Federal Reserve rate cut. With banking giant J.P. Morgan reversing its stance and now predicting a cut, and traders pricing in an 85% probability, the macro winds have decisively shifted in crypto’s favor. This could be the spark that reignites the bull market.
Institutional Giants Pave the Way for a Rate Cut
The narrative shifted rapidly this week. J.P. Morgan’s economist Michael Feroli stated, “We now believe the latest round of Fedspeak tilts the odds toward the Committee deciding to cut rates in two weeks.” This sentiment is echoed by other heavyweights like Goldman Sachs. The driving force is a weakening labor market, which has become a greater concern than inflation for key Fed officials. Federal Reserve Governor Chris Waller confirmed he will vote for a December cut, providing a major boost to the dovish argument. This unified institutional expectation is creating a potent mix of hope and momentum for risk assets.
ETF Inflows Return as the Macro Picture Brightens
The improving macro outlook is already translating into tangible capital flows. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded their second consecutive day of net inflows, adding $21 million on November 26. BlackRock’s IBIT led the charge with a solid $42.8 million inflow. This is a critical reversal after weeks of relentless outflows and signals that institutional investors are the ones driving this Bitcoin price recovery. Furthermore, the potential appointment of former White House economist Kevin Hassett—a known proponent of aggressive rate cuts—as the next Fed Chair adds another layer of bullish speculation for the long term.
My Thoughts
This is the perfect storm for a sustained rally. The combination of a technical breakout, a profoundly shifting macro narrative, and returning ETF inflows is incredibly powerful. The Bitcoin price recovery feels fundamentally different from a dead-cat bounce; it’s driven by a genuine reassessment of liquidity conditions. I believe this marks the end of the corrective phase and the beginning of the next leg up, with $100,000 as the next logical target if the Fed follows through in December.
