Kucoin

Traditional markets from the U.S. to Japan saw declines across major indexes, affecting stocks and cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin (BTC) reversed losses during Asian morning hours on Friday as global asset sell-offs continued, worsened by Middle East geopolitical tensions.

Bitcoin’s Volatile Ride

Bitcoin’s Recent Performance

BTC slumped to $62,500 during late U.S. trading on Thursday. It reversed losses and traded just under $64,000 at 6:30 UTC, near its 50-day moving average, a key support line for traders. FxPro senior market analyst Alex Kuptsikevich noted, “If the decline continues, the $63K and $61K levels, near the 50 and 200-day moving averages, will be crucial. Failing this support could lead to a drop to $55K, which is concerning.”

Historical Trends

Kuptsikevich added, “August is one of the worst months for BTC. In the past 13 years, Bitcoin ended August up only five times and down eight times, with an average decline of 15.4% and an average rise of 26%.”

Crypto Market Trends

Impact on Major Cryptos

Major cryptocurrencies fell in the past 24 hours amid global equity weakness. Ether (ETH) lost 1.6%, while XRP and Solana’s SOL dropped as much as 8%. This broad sell-off impacted Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as well.

ETFs Performance

U.S.-listed BTC ETFs saw a total daily net inflow of $50.6 million, but funds like GBTC, FBTC, ARKB, BITB, and HODL experienced outflows. Meanwhile, Ether ETFs posted a net inflow of $26.75 million, although many had zero flow.

🚨 US #ETF 01 AUG: 🟢$51M to $BTC and 🟢$27M to $ETH

🌟 BTC ETF UPDATE (final): +$51M

• The net inflow remains positive for 2 days in a row.

• #Grayscale Mini (BTC) saw a big inflow of $191M in its second trading day!

🌟 ETH ETF UPDATE (final): +$27M

• The net flow turned… pic.twitter.com/PH9MmikVbM

— Spot On Chain (@spotonchain) August 2, 2024

Broader Market Impact

Global Index Declines

The technology-heavy Nasdaq 100 ended Thursday with a 2.6% loss, and the S&P 500 Index fell 1.4%, erasing nearly all of Wednesday’s gains. Concerns about the U.S. economy and future earnings of tech firms contributed to these declines. In Japan, the Topix index dropped 6% on Friday, marking its biggest fall since 2016.

Microstrategy’s Performance

Presto Research highlighted Microstrategy’s (MSTR) standout performance in Q2 2024, with a 3.7% BTC per share increase due to “intelligent leverage,” a planned $2 billion equity offering for BTC purchases, and the adoption of fair-value accounting for BTC by Q1 2025. Year-to-date, MSTR is up 118%, while BTC is up 45%, according to data.

The Bitcoin price fell to $63,500 as the Federal Reserve announced that interest rates would stay the same. However, future rate cuts are being signaled, and the stock market surged on this news. Are the signs there that Bitcoin is about to follow suit?

Market Noise vs. Bitcoin’s Potential

Understanding Market Noise

The market is full of noise. Will the Fed signal future rate cuts (it did)? How much of the Mt. Gox Bitcoin will be sold? Will the US government sell more Silk Road Bitcoin? Are Bitcoin whales stacking (they are)? Is Bitcoin going to be rejected from the $70,000 level again?

🚨BREAKING: Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at a 23-year high of 5.25%-5.50% for the 8th consecutive meeting in July 2024, in line with market expectations. The central bank noted that inflation has eased over the past year but remains somewhat elevated. In… pic.twitter.com/a0xJPBn1NG

— Giannis Andreou (@gandreou007) July 31, 2024

Bitcoin’s Bull Market Continues

Bitcoin’s Resilience

Bitcoin’s price fluctuates – it goes up, down, and sideways. But what is Bitcoin really? For those who understand its potential, all this noise is just background. Bitcoin is in a bull market and is likely to keep rising until the bull trend is invalidated.

$BTC Correction Stabilizes

Short-Term Trends

Recently, Bitcoin’s price fell over the last few days. However, this small correction seems to have stabilized. Bitcoin didn’t hit a lower low. Instead, it bounced back from the 0.382 Fibonacci level. Positive market sentiment and reset momentum indicators suggest Bitcoin might return to the bull flag’s upper trend line.

Inverse Head and Shoulders Pattern

Long-Term View

Looking at the daily chart, we see the full bull flag and the confluence of Fibonacci levels with Bitcoin’s price. If the price bounces from the 0.382 level, it’s a bullish sign. Bitcoin could then break out of the bull flag. However, if the price drops from its current level or the bull flag’s top, an inverse head and shoulders pattern might form, with the right shoulder at $60,000 or even $57,000.

Increased Liquidity and Bitcoin’s Future

Bitcoin Thriving on Liquidity

Central banks, including the Federal Reserve, will need to cut rates to inject liquidity into the markets or risk economic collapse. In this environment, Bitcoin should thrive. This bull market is far from over.

This week, Bitcoin (BTC) is expected to be highly volatile. An analyst noted that a 10% drop or pump wouldn’t be surprising. Early Tuesday, BTC neared $66,000, erasing last week’s gains. Sentiment dropped as a significant amount of BTC moved from US government-linked wallets, sparking fears of impending selling pressure.

Market Reactions

BTC lost up to 5% before slightly recovering in the past 24 hours. This occurred as the US Marshals Service transferred $2 billion worth of BTC to two new wallets. Tracking service Arkham suggested that one of these wallets is likely a custodial service.

Altcoins Follow Suit

Solana’s SOL led the losses among major cryptocurrencies with a 6% drop, reversing Monday’s gains. Memecoin trading on the Solana network surged over the weekend, increasing on-chain volumes over Ethereum. Other major cryptocurrencies also experienced declines. Cardano’s ADA dropped 5%, Dogecoin (DOGE) and BNB Chain’s BNB fell 4%, and XRP lost 3%. Ether showed relative strength with just a 1% decline despite $97 million in net outflows from newly launched spot ETH ETFs on Monday.

🚨BREAKING: @solana surpasses the combined 24-hour DEX volume of the Ethereum, Base, and Binance chains.

Solana's DEX volume dominance reached a new All-Time high at 42%. pic.twitter.com/RVyqKlZ8z9

— SolanaFloor (@SolanaFloor) July 29, 2024

Analysts Warn of Further Losses

Market observers indicated that macroeconomic decisions and a lack of new catalysts could serve as headwinds, pushing down prices further in the near term. Alice Liu, research lead at CoinMarketCap, mentioned that the market received a boost last week in anticipation of Donald Trump’s speech at the Nashville Conference, where he was expected to discuss BTC as a strategic reserve asset.

Trump’s Pro-Bitcoin Promises

On Saturday, during the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville, Republican candidate Donald Trump promised to fire SEC head Gary Gensler and create a strategic Bitcoin reserve if elected. He also stated he would be a “pro-Bitcoin” president and would not permit any of the 213,239 BTC seized by authorities and held in US government wallets to be sold. Trump declared that the US would become the world’s cryptocurrency capital.

Future Volatility Ahead

Liu warned that interest rate decisions from the Bank of Japan, Federal Reserve, and the Bank of England on Wednesday and Thursday could further increase volatility in the crypto market. The peak of optimism on the 27th led to a “sell the news” phase, and there is currently no new source of optimism in the market.

Bitcoin’s price has quickly rebounded after four days of selling. After briefly touching $63,500, BTC is now hovering around $67,000. This weekend or the coming week could see BTC bulls attempt to reach the all-time high of $73,800. Are you ready for this ride?

A History of Attempts

Since Bitcoin’s last high in mid-March, it has experienced 135 days of sideways and downward movement. There have been four attempts to surpass this high, all of which failed. This latest attempt, which started from a low of $53,500 and peaked at $68,500 before pulling back to $63,500, is now reversing to the upside again.

Why This Time Might Be Different

What makes this attempt different? One major factor is the strong upside momentum indicated by the weekly stochastic RSI. This powerful indicator has bottomed out and both its lines have crossed the critical 20 level, signaling significant momentum.

Strong Momentum Indicators

Previously, a cross-up on the stochastic RSI led to a fake-out, causing the rally to fail. This time, the signal is strong, suggesting a lot of momentum is ahead. Even the 2-week stochastic RSI has bottomed out.

The Next Stage of Bitcoin’s Bull Run

The weekly RSI is showing a potential break of the downward trend, which could establish a new upward trend. If BTC closes above the top bull flag trend line this Sunday, we might see a price explosion, pushing Bitcoin past its all-time high and into uncharted territory.

The next stage of Bitcoin’s bull run could target $100,000, and possibly even $150,000. Are you on board for this journey?

Bitcoin (BTC) nosedived over 3% early Thursday as Asian markets suffered a broader stock market downturn and weakening sentiment for risk assets like cryptocurrencies. BTC fell from over $65,500 to nearly $64,000 within minutes during Tokyo trading.

Massive Liquidations

This sudden plunge resulted in over $250 million in bullish bets being liquidated, marking the worst hit since early July. Liquidations happen when an exchange forcefully closes a trader’s leveraged position due to a partial or total loss of the trader’s initial margin. This data indicates leverage being flushed out from popular futures products, signaling a potential short-term decline in price volatility.

Ether Also Hit Hard

Ether (ETH) longs lost the most, with $100 million liquidated following a 7.5% slump in the token amid outflows from the newly launched ETH ETF.

Major Exchanges Affected

Binance recorded the highest liquidations among exchanges at $118 million, with 88% being long trades. OKX and Huobi, popular among Asia-based traders, saw as much as 94% of long trades on their platforms liquidated.

Impact of U.S. Tech Stocks

The dive in cryptocurrency prices coincided with a significant drop in U.S. technology stocks on Wednesday. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index lost 660 points, its biggest drop since 2022. Mixed quarterly earnings from Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla (TSLA) led to their shares falling as much as 12%. The “Magnificent 7” tech stocks collectively lost over $750 billion in market cap, the most on record for the group.

Asian Market Response

Losses spread to Asian markets early Thursday, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 slumping more than 3% amid concerns that the Bank of Japan could hike interest rates.

Bitcoin (BTC) hovered around $66,000 as Mt. Gox, the defunct cryptocurrency exchange, initiated substantial movements of over $2.5 billion worth of BTC to various wallets, including a significant transfer to crypto exchange Bitstamp. Such actions have historically triggered sell-offs across the broader crypto market.

Details of the Transfer

According to Arkham data, Mt. Gox transferred $2.85 billion worth of BTC to new wallets during the early Asian morning hours on Tuesday. Notably, this included 5,000 BTC valued at approximately $340 million and another 37,000 BTC worth around $2.5 billion. A subsequent transfer of $130 million from the 5,000 BTC wallet was specifically directed to Bitstamp. Such movements towards exchanges typically indicate an intent to liquidate holdings.

THIS MORNING: MT GOX MOVING FUNDS

Mt. Gox addresses deposited $1 to 4 separate Bitstamp deposit addresses. Bitstamp is 1 of 5 exchanges working with the Mt. Gox Trustee to facilitate creditor repayments.

Mt. Gox currently holds: $6.08B in BTC

These transfers are likely to… pic.twitter.com/uyOLL7O065

— Arkham (@ArkhamIntel) July 22, 2024

Background and Recent Developments

This recent activity follows smaller test transactions from Mt. Gox to Bitstamp observed just a day earlier. In early July, Mt. Gox began the process of compensating creditors affected by a 2014 hack, planning distributions of over $9 billion in BTC and $73 million in bitcoin cash (BCH) to traders in the coming months.

Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment

The timing of Mt. Gox’s asset movements coincided with Bitcoin’s price dipping below $67,000 on Tuesday. This development affected market sentiment, particularly as U.S. investors anticipated the commencement of spot ether (ETH) exchange-traded funds trading later in the day.

Conclusion

The transfer of substantial Bitcoin holdings by Mt. Gox to Bitstamp has sparked significant interest and concern within the cryptocurrency community. Observers are closely monitoring the market impact and the potential implications for investor confidence amid ongoing developments in the crypto space.

Bitcoin’s price surged above $68,000 on Sunday, marking a significant resurgence from its lows in early July. As the cryptocurrency hovers near the top of its long-term bull flag, investors are speculating whether $BTC is poised for a substantial upward movement.

Market Sentiment Shifts

Bitcoin’s sentiment has notably improved, evident from the Fear and Greed Index scoring 70, firmly placing it in the Greed zone. Elon Musk’s symbolic gesture of updating his X profile picture with laser eyes reflects this positive sentiment shift for $BTC.

Impact of Spot Bitcoin ETFs

The introduction of Spot Bitcoin ETFs continues to influence Bitcoin’s price dynamics. Last Friday alone, these funds saw a substantial inflow of $383.6 million, equivalent to 6,000 BTC. This influx significantly outweighs the daily Bitcoin supply, underscoring the ETFs’ impact on market liquidity.

🇺🇸 USA ETFs have purchased 40,860 #Bitcoin ($2.6B) in July.

Adviser flows have barely begun.

This is still the first innings ✌️ pic.twitter.com/1AJtYCsIkF

— Thomas | heyapollo.com (@thomas_fahrer) July 21, 2024

Potential Pullback Anticipated

Analyzing the 12-hour chart reveals Bitcoin’s price movement within an upward-sloping channel. Typically, such patterns suggest a potential minor pullback before further upside. Whether this retracement tests support at $64,000 remains uncertain.

Weekly Outlook and Bullish Signals

On the weekly timeframe, Bitcoin has approached the upper boundary of its bull flag/channel and faced rejection. However, a close above this resistance by the end of the week could signal a bullish breakout towards the all-time high near $73,800.

Stochastic RSI Indicator

A bullish signal emerges from the stochastic RSI indicator, where both lines have crossed above the 20 level. This indicates strong momentum building beneath Bitcoin’s price, potentially paving the way for significant upward movement.

Upcoming Catalysts

Rumors surrounding Donald Trump’s possible announcement of a US Bitcoin strategic reserve at Bitcoin 2024 in Nashville add to the excitement in the cryptocurrency market. Such developments could serve as substantial bullish catalysts in the near term.

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s current price dynamics suggest a cautious optimism among investors, with technical indicators and market sentiment pointing towards a potential breakout. As anticipation builds around future catalysts, including major announcements and technical signals, $BTC remains at a critical juncture poised for further price exploration.