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After a dramatic plunge on Monday, Bitcoin (BTC) fell to $49,300. By Tuesday, it had bounced back to $56,000. The big question now is: will this recovery continue, or is it the start of a bear market?

Crypto Trading’s 24/7 Nature: A Double-Edged Sword

Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies trade 24/7, a significant advantage over traditional markets. However, this non-stop trading also exposed a vulnerability over the weekend.

The Impact of Japan’s Interest Rate Hike

Japan’s central bank recently raised its interest rate by 25 basis points. This was only the second rate hike since 2007. This increase affected the “Yen carry trade,” where hedge funds borrow at low Japanese rates to invest in higher-yielding U.S. assets. The rate hike made this strategy less profitable, causing hedge funds to unwind their positions.

Weekend Sell-off in Cryptocurrencies

With traditional financial markets closed over the weekend, hedge funds needed liquidity to close their carry trades. Cryptocurrencies became the only sellable assets, leading to Bitcoin’s crash.

USD/JPY Holds Support Amid Market Turbulence

The USD/JPY pair saw a significant drop, favoring the yen and weakening the dollar. However, it found support around 145 JPY. While the carry trade unwinds, major stock markets are now open, and Monday saw a massive $6 trillion sell-off in traditional assets.

Federal Reserve’s Possible Response

There were rumors of an emergency meeting by the Federal Reserve to raise rates immediately. However, this move seems unlikely, as it could be seen as a sign of desperation.

Bitcoin’s Strong Bounce

Bitcoin showed a significant recovery from its low of $49,300. Strong support exists between $51,000 and $52,000, stemming from previous bull markets. If BTC ends the week above $55,600, the recovery might continue. Conversely, if it falls below $51,000, the next strong support is between $41,000 and $43,000, with the bull market trend line being the last defense.

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s recovery to $56,000 offers hope, but the market remains volatile. Investors should watch key support levels to gauge the future direction.

Bitcoin (BTC) faced a challenging August, plummeting over 13% to around $50,000 within the first five days. Despite this significant drop, key indicators hint at a possible rebound.

Long-term Options Skew Remains Bullish

One encouraging sign comes from bitcoin options on Deribit. The 180-day call-put skew remains above 3, indicating a long-term bullish outlook.

• Call Options: These allow the holder to buy bitcoin at a specific price later, representing a bullish bet.
• Put Options: These allow the holder to sell bitcoin at a specific price, representing a bearish bet.
• Options Skew: This measures the demand for call vs. put options. A positive skew indicates stronger demand for calls, suggesting optimism about future prices.

Despite the recent drop, the positive long-term pricing reflects confidence that bitcoin will recover once market volatility subsides.

Expert Insights

Analysts from LondonCryptoClub believe the U.S. economic slowdown will force the Federal Reserve to cut rates more aggressively, which is bullish for bitcoin. They also highlight China’s stimulus efforts and a weaker dollar as factors that will enhance global liquidity, benefiting bitcoin.

Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) Suggests Dip-Buying on U.S. Exchanges

The recent sell-off saw significant dip-buying activity on U.S. exchanges like Coinbase, Gemini, and Kraken, as shown by the cumulative volume delta (CVD).

• CVD Explained: CVD measures the difference between the volume of buy and sell trades over time. A rising positive CVD indicates more buying than selling.
• Recent Trends: Since August 1, CVD on major U.S. exchanges has remained positive, suggesting net buying pressure and bargain hunting during price drops.

Kaiko’s analysis noted that while offshore exchanges like Binance and OKX experienced strong selling, U.S. platforms saw continued buying, indicating investor confidence in a rebound.

Conclusion

While Bitcoin’s August drop was steep, key indicators like long-term options skew and CVD on U.S. exchanges suggest potential for recovery. Investors are advised to stay informed and consider the long-term outlook.

Ether experienced its steepest drop since May 2021. Bitcoin also extended its decline, reflecting global market uncertainty.

Bitcoin’s Recent Decline

Bitcoin Falls Below $50,000

During Asian trading hours on Monday, Bitcoin (BTC) fell below $50,000 before rebounding to nearly $53,000. This marks its lowest level since mid-February. Rising tensions in the Middle East and global economic concerns have shaken investor confidence.

Fourth Consecutive Day of Decline

Bitcoin dropped for the fourth consecutive day, reaching a low of $49,112 according to TradingView data.

Ether’s Significant Drop

Ether’s 25% Slide

Ether (ETH), the native token of the Ethereum blockchain, plummeted to $2,060, its lowest since January 3. This near 25% drop is the worst single-day hit for Ether since May 2021.

Rumors of Liquidation

The sell-off was fueled by rumors that crypto market maker Jump Trading was liquidating assets. On-chain sleuth spotonchain identified a wallet linked to Jump Trading that transferred 17,576 ETH (worth over $46 million) to centralized exchanges, suggesting possible liquidation.

Impact on the Crypto Market

Massive Liquidations

This downturn led to over $1 billion in liquidations in the crypto futures market. Ether alone saw over $350 million in liquidated bets, an unusual occurrence.

Global Market Influence

The panic selling in the crypto market was triggered by broader financial market declines. Fears of a global recession and rising Middle East tensions spurred this sell-off. Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index fell 12.4%, the Stoxx Europe 600 Index dropped 2.8%, and S&P 500 micro futures lost 2.9%.

Market Sentiment

Crypto Fear and Greed Index

The crypto fear and greed sentiment index is now flashing “fear,” reaching its lowest level since early July. This index tracks volatility, prices, and social media data to gauge market sentiment, indicating whether participants are fearful (usually signaling local bottoms) or greedy (marking market tops).

Conclusion

The recent declines in Bitcoin and Ethereum highlight the volatility and interconnectedness of global financial markets. Investors should stay informed and cautious during these turbulent times.

Bitcoin’s price has dipped below $60,000, raising alarms among investors. Analysts predict further losses as technical indicators suggest a bearish trend.

Concerning Technical Indicators

Bearish Signals

Crypto trading expert Alan Santana highlighted in an August 4 TradingView post that Bitcoin might fall further before any significant growth. A major concern is the bearish divergence on Bitcoin’s weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI). Despite higher prices in 2024 compared to 2021, the RSI has shown lower highs, indicating weakened upward momentum.

Weekly RSI Trends

Bitcoin’s weekly RSI is trending downwards, with a current reading of 50.6. This trend indicates a potential long-term bearish shift, the first since August 2023. Such a shift, especially after a major high, typically signals a prolonged downturn.

Critical Levels to Watch

Descending Triangle Pattern

Bitcoin’s price is forming a descending triangle pattern, a bearish signal that often leads to further declines. Key support levels include the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level around $37,795 and the 200-week moving average.

Decreasing Volume

The decreasing volume on upward price movements suggests weakening buying interest, adding to the bearish outlook. Analyst Rekt Capital also noted that the current RSI readings could dictate the extent of Bitcoin’s downside.

Impact of U.S. Economic Signs

Economic Concerns

Bitcoin’s decline is also influenced by troubling signs in the U.S. economy. Investors are watching the Federal Reserve’s strategies to rescue the economy, which will likely impact Bitcoin’s trajectory.

Bitcoin Price Analysis

Current Price

As of now, Bitcoin is trading at $60,868, down 1.5% in the last 24 hours and over 10% on the weekly timeframe. The ability of bulls to sustain the price above the $60,000 support will be crucial to preventing further losses.

Traditional markets from the U.S. to Japan saw declines across major indexes, affecting stocks and cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin (BTC) reversed losses during Asian morning hours on Friday as global asset sell-offs continued, worsened by Middle East geopolitical tensions.

Bitcoin’s Volatile Ride

Bitcoin’s Recent Performance

BTC slumped to $62,500 during late U.S. trading on Thursday. It reversed losses and traded just under $64,000 at 6:30 UTC, near its 50-day moving average, a key support line for traders. FxPro senior market analyst Alex Kuptsikevich noted, “If the decline continues, the $63K and $61K levels, near the 50 and 200-day moving averages, will be crucial. Failing this support could lead to a drop to $55K, which is concerning.”

Historical Trends

Kuptsikevich added, “August is one of the worst months for BTC. In the past 13 years, Bitcoin ended August up only five times and down eight times, with an average decline of 15.4% and an average rise of 26%.”

Crypto Market Trends

Impact on Major Cryptos

Major cryptocurrencies fell in the past 24 hours amid global equity weakness. Ether (ETH) lost 1.6%, while XRP and Solana’s SOL dropped as much as 8%. This broad sell-off impacted Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as well.

ETFs Performance

U.S.-listed BTC ETFs saw a total daily net inflow of $50.6 million, but funds like GBTC, FBTC, ARKB, BITB, and HODL experienced outflows. Meanwhile, Ether ETFs posted a net inflow of $26.75 million, although many had zero flow.

Broader Market Impact

Global Index Declines

The technology-heavy Nasdaq 100 ended Thursday with a 2.6% loss, and the S&P 500 Index fell 1.4%, erasing nearly all of Wednesday’s gains. Concerns about the U.S. economy and future earnings of tech firms contributed to these declines. In Japan, the Topix index dropped 6% on Friday, marking its biggest fall since 2016.

Microstrategy’s Performance

Presto Research highlighted Microstrategy’s (MSTR) standout performance in Q2 2024, with a 3.7% BTC per share increase due to “intelligent leverage,” a planned $2 billion equity offering for BTC purchases, and the adoption of fair-value accounting for BTC by Q1 2025. Year-to-date, MSTR is up 118%, while BTC is up 45%, according to data.

The Bitcoin price fell to $63,500 as the Federal Reserve announced that interest rates would stay the same. However, future rate cuts are being signaled, and the stock market surged on this news. Are the signs there that Bitcoin is about to follow suit?

Market Noise vs. Bitcoin’s Potential

Understanding Market Noise

The market is full of noise. Will the Fed signal future rate cuts (it did)? How much of the Mt. Gox Bitcoin will be sold? Will the US government sell more Silk Road Bitcoin? Are Bitcoin whales stacking (they are)? Is Bitcoin going to be rejected from the $70,000 level again?

Bitcoin’s Bull Market Continues

Bitcoin’s Resilience

Bitcoin’s price fluctuates – it goes up, down, and sideways. But what is Bitcoin really? For those who understand its potential, all this noise is just background. Bitcoin is in a bull market and is likely to keep rising until the bull trend is invalidated.

$BTC Correction Stabilizes

Short-Term Trends

Recently, Bitcoin’s price fell over the last few days. However, this small correction seems to have stabilized. Bitcoin didn’t hit a lower low. Instead, it bounced back from the 0.382 Fibonacci level. Positive market sentiment and reset momentum indicators suggest Bitcoin might return to the bull flag’s upper trend line.

Inverse Head and Shoulders Pattern

Long-Term View

Looking at the daily chart, we see the full bull flag and the confluence of Fibonacci levels with Bitcoin’s price. If the price bounces from the 0.382 level, it’s a bullish sign. Bitcoin could then break out of the bull flag. However, if the price drops from its current level or the bull flag’s top, an inverse head and shoulders pattern might form, with the right shoulder at $60,000 or even $57,000.

Increased Liquidity and Bitcoin’s Future

Bitcoin Thriving on Liquidity

Central banks, including the Federal Reserve, will need to cut rates to inject liquidity into the markets or risk economic collapse. In this environment, Bitcoin should thrive. This bull market is far from over.

This week, Bitcoin (BTC) is expected to be highly volatile. An analyst noted that a 10% drop or pump wouldn’t be surprising. Early Tuesday, BTC neared $66,000, erasing last week’s gains. Sentiment dropped as a significant amount of BTC moved from US government-linked wallets, sparking fears of impending selling pressure.

Market Reactions

BTC lost up to 5% before slightly recovering in the past 24 hours. This occurred as the US Marshals Service transferred $2 billion worth of BTC to two new wallets. Tracking service Arkham suggested that one of these wallets is likely a custodial service.

Altcoins Follow Suit

Solana’s SOL led the losses among major cryptocurrencies with a 6% drop, reversing Monday’s gains. Memecoin trading on the Solana network surged over the weekend, increasing on-chain volumes over Ethereum. Other major cryptocurrencies also experienced declines. Cardano’s ADA dropped 5%, Dogecoin (DOGE) and BNB Chain’s BNB fell 4%, and XRP lost 3%. Ether showed relative strength with just a 1% decline despite $97 million in net outflows from newly launched spot ETH ETFs on Monday.

Analysts Warn of Further Losses

Market observers indicated that macroeconomic decisions and a lack of new catalysts could serve as headwinds, pushing down prices further in the near term. Alice Liu, research lead at CoinMarketCap, mentioned that the market received a boost last week in anticipation of Donald Trump’s speech at the Nashville Conference, where he was expected to discuss BTC as a strategic reserve asset.

Trump’s Pro-Bitcoin Promises

On Saturday, during the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville, Republican candidate Donald Trump promised to fire SEC head Gary Gensler and create a strategic Bitcoin reserve if elected. He also stated he would be a “pro-Bitcoin” president and would not permit any of the 213,239 BTC seized by authorities and held in US government wallets to be sold. Trump declared that the US would become the world’s cryptocurrency capital.

Future Volatility Ahead

Liu warned that interest rate decisions from the Bank of Japan, Federal Reserve, and the Bank of England on Wednesday and Thursday could further increase volatility in the crypto market. The peak of optimism on the 27th led to a “sell the news” phase, and there is currently no new source of optimism in the market.

Bitcoin’s price has quickly rebounded after four days of selling. After briefly touching $63,500, BTC is now hovering around $67,000. This weekend or the coming week could see BTC bulls attempt to reach the all-time high of $73,800. Are you ready for this ride?

A History of Attempts

Since Bitcoin’s last high in mid-March, it has experienced 135 days of sideways and downward movement. There have been four attempts to surpass this high, all of which failed. This latest attempt, which started from a low of $53,500 and peaked at $68,500 before pulling back to $63,500, is now reversing to the upside again.

Why This Time Might Be Different

What makes this attempt different? One major factor is the strong upside momentum indicated by the weekly stochastic RSI. This powerful indicator has bottomed out and both its lines have crossed the critical 20 level, signaling significant momentum.

Strong Momentum Indicators

Previously, a cross-up on the stochastic RSI led to a fake-out, causing the rally to fail. This time, the signal is strong, suggesting a lot of momentum is ahead. Even the 2-week stochastic RSI has bottomed out.

The Next Stage of Bitcoin’s Bull Run

The weekly RSI is showing a potential break of the downward trend, which could establish a new upward trend. If BTC closes above the top bull flag trend line this Sunday, we might see a price explosion, pushing Bitcoin past its all-time high and into uncharted territory.

The next stage of Bitcoin’s bull run could target $100,000, and possibly even $150,000. Are you on board for this journey?