Bitcoin

Bitcoin is facing renewed selling pressure, slipping below the critical $113,000 mark on Monday. The decline highlights growing volatility and uncertainty, with weakening technical indicators and concerning on-chain data suggesting a period of exhaustion for the flagship cryptocurrency.

As of this writing, BTC is trading at $112,909, down roughly 2.5% on the day. This retreat from its weekly high near $118,000 brings its seven-day losses to 3%, as it struggles to maintain upward momentum against persistent resistance.

Weak Bitcoin Technicals Signal Bearish Sentiment

The technical picture for Bitcoin has turned cautious. Key momentum indicators are flashing warning signs:

• The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has slipped to 45.57, indicating a clear loss of bullish momentum.
• The MACD has completed a bearish crossover, reflecting a shift in sentiment among traders.

Furthermore, futures volume has surged 137.2% to $72.97 billion. This spike suggests that traders are engaging in heightened speculative activity to capitalize on the current volatility, rather than making confident long-term bets.

On-Chain Data Points to “Cycle Exhaustion”

Perhaps more concerning is the story told by on-chain metrics. According to a recent analysis by CryptoQuant researcher Joao Wedson, there are clear signs of “cycle exhaustion.”

A key metric, the SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) Trend Signal, suggests that profitability is drying up. This means that the average BTC sold is realizing less profit, indicating that investors who bought at lower prices are becoming scarce.

Wedson notes that accumulation is happening at historically high prices, which is unprecedented. Many current investors missed earlier, more favorable accumulation phases.

The Altcoin Rotation Thesis

This fatigue is leading to a notable shift in market behavior. Wedson argues that we are now in an “Altcoin Season.”

Social interest and search volume around Bitcoin are declining. Meanwhile, capital appears to be rotating out of BTC and into altcoins, using profits that were built up during Bitcoin’s earlier rallies.

The Short-Term Holder Realized Price, currently at $111,400, is now a major reference point. This level is particularly important for institutions that entered the market late and may be more sensitive to short-term price swings.

With Bitcoin’s risk-adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) weakening compared to 2024, it is becoming less attractive to large institutional players, further fueling the move toward altcoins. For now, analyst attention is shifting away from Bitcoin and toward the altcoin market for opportunities.

Bitcoin ‘s price is at a critical juncture. Despite the Federal Reserve’s recent 25 basis point rate cut, BTC has shown surprisingly little movement, continuing to hover around the $116,000 level.

All eyes are now on a massive $3.5 billion Bitcoin options expiry happening today, which could be the catalyst for the next major price move. Analysts are warning that if Bitcoin fails to clear a key resistance level, a significant correction could be imminent.

The Crucial $117,200 Bitcoin Resistance Level

Following the Fed’s policy shift, Bitcoin’s volatility has remained unusually subdued. Popular crypto analyst Rekt Capital has identified a specific level that traders must watch: $117,200.

He argues that a decisive daily close above this price is absolutely essential for Bitcoin to rally toward the next major target at $120,000. However, he also presents a bearish scenario.

If Bitcoin fails to close above $117,200, it could trigger a sharp correction all the way down to $105,000.

On-Chain Data Highlights Key Support

This analysis is supported by data from blockchain analytics firm Glassnode. They highlight $115,200 as the most important short-term support level to hold.

The firm notes that a stunning 95% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply is currently in profit. This means that if the price starts to fall, a large number of holders might be tempted to sell and realize their gains, potentially accelerating a downturn.

Glassnode agrees that a break below $115,200 could indeed “open the gates” for a correction toward $105,500.

A Record $3.5 Billion Options Expiry

Today’s market activity is dominated by one of the largest BTC options expiries in history. A whopping 30,000 BTC options, worth approximately $3.53 billion, are set to expire on the Deribit exchange alone.

This event creates a tense standoff between bulls and bears:

• The overall put-call ratio is 1.23, indicating a bearish tilt in overall positioning.
• However, in the last 24 hours, the ratio dropped to 0.77, meaning call buying (bets on higher prices) has exceeded put buying.

The “max pain” price—the point that would cause the maximum financial loss to options holders—is $114,000. This is well below BTC’s current price. Analysts warn that large traders may attempt to push the price toward this level at settlement time to minimize their losses.

The outcome of this expiry will likely set the tone for BTC trajectory in the coming week.

After a turbulent start to September, Bitcoin is showing signs of stability. The price is holding above $115,000, and key indicators are now pointing towards a potential accumulation phase, suggesting reduced sell pressure.

Current Market Snapshot

As of now, Bitcoin is trading at $115,954, down a modest 0.5% over the last 24 hours. While it’s still 6.6% below its August all-time high of $124,128, it has gained 3.4% over the past week.

Critically, daily trading volume has surged 46.7% to $45.1 billion. This indicates a significant return of market activity. Derivatives volume also jumped over 42%, though a slight dip in open interest suggests some traders remain cautious about new positions.

Key Indicator: Sell-Side Risk Drops

A major signal comes from analyst Ali Martinez. On September 16, he noted that Bitcoin’s Sell-Side Risk Ratio dropped below 0.1%. Historically, this level is associated with local market bottoms, reduced selling pressure, and the start of accumulation phases.

He also identified $116,963 as a crucial supply wall. This is a key level where sellers might look to take profits if the price continues to climb.

The Scarcity Index Spikes

Adding to the bullish thesis, the Bitcoin Scarcity Index on Binance has spiked for the first time since June. This index rises when exchange supply thins out, often due to large investor withdrawals or a drop in sell orders. The last time this happened, Bitcoin’s price rallied to $124,000.

However, analysts caution that if this spike fades quickly, it could just be speculative noise. A prolonged period of high scarcity would be needed to confirm a strong, sustained accumulation phase.

Technical Analysis: Bulls vs. Bears

On the daily chart, Bitcoin is consolidating just below a major resistance level at $117,525.

• Bullish Signals: The Momentum and MACD indicators are flashing buy signals. More importantly, BTC is trading firmly above its 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages, which all signal “buy.” This shows strong underlying strength.
• Bearish Signals: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is neutral at 58, but other indicators point to overbought conditions, hinting at the possibility of a short-term pullback.

What’s Next for Bitcoin Price?

The path forward is clear. A decisive break above the $117,525 resistance could open the door for a retest of the $124,128 all-time high.

However, if Bitcoin fails to break through, we could see a retracement toward support levels at $112,244 or even $106,963. For now, the easing sell pressure provides a hopeful sign for bulls.