Bitcoin holds weekly 200MA near $62,666 on July 5. The asset is up about 0.1% over 24 hours and 4.03% over seven days, according to TradingView market data.

Its market cap stands near $1.26 trillion, while 24-hour volume is about $17.57 billion. The latest range shows Bitcoin moving between $62,462 and $63,383, keeping BTC close to the $63,000 area after a short-term rebound from the late-June low near $58,000 to $59,000.

Why Bitcoin holds weekly 200MA after short squeeze

Trader Daan Crypto Trades said Bitcoin shorts were cleared twice as price moved toward $63,000 on July 4. He called the move a “classic short squeeze,” where sellers are forced to close positions as price rises into a crowded short zone.

Nevertheless, he raised doubt over the next move. Specifically, he asked whether “$62.6K (Weekly 200MA) holds as support” or whether the move only cleared liquidity before another pullback. That level now sits near the center of the short-term Bitcoin debate.

Reports say that Bitcoin had already rebounded near $61,700 after U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF inflows returned. The report said BTC needed to reclaim $62,800 and $65,000 to confirm stronger bullish momentum.

Therefore, that framework remains useful as price trades near $63,000. Holding above the weekly 200MA may support the recovery. Conversely, a failure could bring attention back to $60,000 and the late-June low area.

Falling wedge keeps breakout hopes alive

Analyst BATMAN said Bitcoin remains inside a daily falling wedge while the RSI shows a bullish divergence. In simple terms, price made lower lows, but momentum did not fall with the same force.

Consequently, the analyst said this may show that bearish pressure is fading. He also pointed to the $67,500 to $71,000 area as a bearish imbalance above current price. Bitcoin may seek liquidity there if a confirmed breakout occurs.

The daily BTC/USDT setup shows a short-term recovery after the bounce from the $58,000 to $59,000 zone. The latest daily candle was slightly red near $62,700, showing hesitation after the rebound.

The Parabolic SAR sits below price near $58,126, which keeps the short-term structure supportive. However, a move below that area would weaken the recovery and bring sellers back into focus.

Momentum improves, but volume stays weak

The MACD has improved. Specifically, the histogram is positive near 592, and the MACD line is above the signal line. This shows that bullish momentum has returned after the recent bounce.

Nevertheless, both MACD lines remain below the zero level. Therefore, the wider trend has not fully turned bullish. It shows recovery momentum, not a confirmed trend change.

Volume also remains low at about 4.24K BTC on the chart reviewed. Consequently, that limits confirmation behind the rebound. For a stronger move, Bitcoin would need higher volume and a clear break above the $63,000 to $65,000 resistance zone.

The downside levels remain clear. Specifically, Bitcoin must hold $62,600 to keep the short-term squeeze alive. Below that, traders may watch $60,000, then the $58,100 to $58,500 zone near the Parabolic SAR and recent lows.

Saylor’s Bitcoin view meets market caution

Michael Saylor added to the wider market discussion with a short post on X, saying “Bitcoin is Digital Energy.” This comment came days after he argued that Bitcoin’s long-term role depends on capital markets, credit, and institutional adoption.

Reports say recently reported that Saylor has called for balance between adoption, innovation, and stability as companies, banks, and governments build around Bitcoin. Furthermore, Saylor has argued that Bitcoin’s old four-year cycle is losing control, with capital flows now shaping BTC more than miner issuance alone. That view places more weight on ETF flows, corporate treasury moves, and credit markets.

For now, the market remains technical and cautious. Bitcoin has squeezed shorts and recovered from late-June lows. Nevertheless, it still needs a clean move above $65,000 to improve the broader chart.

Until that happens, the key test is simple. BTC must hold the weekly 200MA near $62,600, defend the $60,000 area, and attract stronger volume before traders can treat the rebound as more than a liquidity move.

Bitcoin ETF inflows surge to $221.7 million on Thursday. Consequently, this ended a 10-day withdrawal streak as softer U.S. economic data and easing Federal Reserve rate concerns helped Bitcoin recover from this week’s lows.

According to SoSoValue data, Thursday’s inflows were the strongest daily total in about two months. This follows a period when investors pulled nearly $2.7 billion from the funds during the previous 10 trading sessions.

Why Bitcoin ETF inflows surge after weak jobs data

The rebound came as Bitcoin climbed back above $61,000 after briefly dropping below $58,000 earlier this week. Per Tradingview data, the cryptocurrency recently traded near $62,500, about 7.7% above its weekly low.

Fidelity’s FBTC attracted the largest share of new money with $166 million in inflows. Meanwhile, ARK 21Shares’ ARKB added $91.8 million, and VanEck’s HODL received $4.4 million. Nevertheless, BlackRock’s IBIT remained the only major fund to post net withdrawals, losing $40.4 million and extending its outflow streak that began in mid-June.

The latest buying followed one of the toughest periods on record for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. Specifically, SoSoValue data showed the products lost roughly $4.5 billion during June, making it their worst monthly performance since launch.

The turnaround came after the U.S. Labor Department reported that nonfarm payrolls increased by only 57,000 in June. That is far below market expectations of around 110,000. At the same time, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh indicated that inflation risks had eased. Consequently, this reduced expectations of additional interest rate increases and weakened the U.S. dollar.

Therefore, the combination of weaker labor market data and a less hawkish tone from the Fed improved investor appetite for risk assets. This helped Bitcoin recover alongside renewed demand for spot ETF products.

Ethereum investment products also benefited from the improved sentiment. Specifically, U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs attracted $14.9 million in net inflows on Wednesday, followed by another $29.1 million on Thursday.

Historical July trends add to recovery narrative

While the ETF rebound was driven by macroeconomic developments, several market participants pointed to historical price patterns that could support Bitcoin during July.

In a July 4 X post, analyst Cyclop said that Bitcoin has recorded gains exceeding 20% during July in every previous bear market. The post suggested the current recovery could resemble earlier bear-market rallies, although it did not predict that history would necessarily repeat.

Separately, crypto analyst Ardi argued that Bitcoin may be entering the final phase of its current correction based on previous market cycles. Specifically, earlier Bitcoin bear markets typically spent around one year forming a bottom. Meanwhile, the current correction has lasted roughly nine months.

He estimated this would place the market about three months away from the period that has historically offered the highest probability for a cycle low. Nevertheless, he cautioned that any bottom could arrive earlier or later than that statistical window.

Despite those historical comparisons, Thursday’s ETF inflows were tied directly to changing macroeconomic expectations. Investors responded to fresh U.S. economic data and signs that pressure for additional Federal Reserve tightening may be easing.

Bitcoin drops below $60K again on Tuesday. The asset faced downside pressure as the US dollar hit its highest levels against the Japanese yen since 1986.

According to TradingView data, BTC fell toward $58,000 around the Wall Street open as volatility increased into the US session.

Why Bitcoin drops below $60K amid dollar strength

Commentators saw the tussle between bulls and bears continuing on short time frames. “Open Interest pumping, noticed some large longs entering on this dip, it’s about to get spicy,” commentator Exitpump wrote on X.

Trader Killa eyed a repeat of weekly price patterns, in which Mondays formed the swing low or high of the following week. “BTC Keeps consolidating in this price range. Marginally higher lows and equal highs,” trader Daan Crypto Trades continued. “Look out for whichever direction breaks first, I think a quick move should follow after that seeing how compressed this is becoming.”

Consequently, Bitcoin reinforced its divergence from US stocks with total Q2 losses nearing 20%. By contrast, the S&P 500 is up 14% over the quarter, marking its best performance since 2020. The Nasdaq 100 is up +25%, on track for its strongest quarter in 5 years.

US dollar hits 40-year high against yen

In a potential headwind for crypto, the US dollar hit new multidecade highs against the Japanese yen. Specifically, USD/JPY reached 162.50 on the day, its highest since the mid‑1980s.

“Whether it’s Japan, India, South Korea or MSTR, it’s the same problem,” analyst George Gammon summarized. “You’ve got dollar liabilities and not enough dollars. So you sell assets to get dollars putting downward pressure on the asset. Yen, Rupees, Won, or Bitcoin.”

Bitcoin hodlers “appear to be cutting losses”

In new research, CryptoQuant warned of a fresh round of Bitcoin investor “capitulation.” At sub‑$70,000 levels, contributor Crypto Sunmoon warned that those who bought BTC around all‑time highs were now selling at a loss.

“Since the break below $70K, exchange inflows have risen sharply, with the majority of this volume consisting of coins held for roughly six to twelve months,” they wrote. “This pattern is consistent with capitulation among cycle-top buyers, as holders appear to be cutting losses rather than continuing to hold through the drawdown.”

CryptoQuant data showed onchain movements increasingly involving coins that last moved around all‑time highs, along with increasing inflows to exchanges.

“For some, this will be a painful stretch. That said, capitulation events of this kind among cycle-top investors have historically coincided with long-term bottom formation, a pattern observed in both the 2018 and 2022 cycles,” Crypto Sunmoon added.