McKinsey & Company forecasts the future of tokenized assets, predicting the market could reach $4 trillion by 2030 in an optimistic scenario. This is a more conservative estimate compared to earlier reports from Boston Consulting Group and 21Shares, which predicted over $10 trillion in tokenized assets by the decade’s end.
Slower Adoption of Blockchain Technology
The report highlights that financial institutions are adopting blockchain technology for traditional financial instruments at a slower pace and a limited range of assets. The authors suggest that broad adoption of tokenization is still distant, with the market potentially being as low as $1 trillion by 2030.
From Proofs of Concept to Scaled Solutions
As infrastructure players transition from proofs of concept to robust, scalable solutions, there are both opportunities and challenges in reimagining the future of financial services. Tokenization has become a popular use case for blockchains, with global asset managers and banks like BlackRock, Citigroup, and HSBC leveraging blockchain to enhance operational
efficiencies and access.
Tokenized Market Trends
While the trend gained attention last year, McKinsey’s base case estimates the tokenized asset market to reach nearly $2 trillion by 2030. This estimate excludes tokenized deposits, stablecoins, and central bank digital currencies. The bullish $4 trillion scenario hinges on favorable regulations, industry-wide collaboration, and the absence of systemic disruptions.
Leading and Lagging Asset Classes
Mutual funds, bonds, exchange-traded notes, repurchase agreements (repos), alternative funds, loans, and securitization are expected to lead the tokenization efforts. Conversely, real estate, commodities, and equities may see slower adoption due to marginal benefits, feasibility concerns, complex compliance requirements, and a lack of incentives for key industry players.
Early Movers Advantage
Many institutions remain in a “wait and see” mode, awaiting clearer signals for implementing tokenization. This hesitation could allow early movers to capture significant market share. Anthony Moro, CEO of Provenance Blockchain Labs, notes that while most institutions recognize the importance of tokenization, the technical integration with existing processes remains a significant challenge.
