Solana Alpenglow upgrade activates on October 21. Meanwhile, SOL trades near $106. That is far below where it began the month.
The upgrade aims to make transactions final much faster. Whether the network delivers that improvement under live conditions will shape the case for a November recovery.
Solana Alpenglow upgrade targets 150ms finality
Currently, Solana finality takes about 12.8 seconds. Alpenglow aims for roughly 150 milliseconds. That is about 85 times faster if the target holds.
The upgrade replaces TowerBFT. It changes how validators agree on blocks. However, transaction execution and programs remain unchanged.
Activation begins at epoch 1064 on October 21. The Foundation estimates about 13:20 UTC. Epoch timing can drift, so treat that as an estimate.
Price has moved the other way
SOL began October near $121. It closed October 20 at $106.39. That is a fall of roughly 12.4%.
What looked like a nearby breakout now requires almost an 18% recovery. To reach $125, SOL needs a $19 gain. The $90 adverse case sits $16 away. Neither level is guaranteed.
Before $125 becomes relevant, SOL must regain $110 to $115. Then it must reclaim the early-October range near $120. Below the market, the mid-month low near $101.69 and the $100 level mark a different route.
Fund outflows have persisted
SoSoValue shows $6.7 million in Solana ETF withdrawals on October 19. Another $2.6 million left on October 20. Those two days add to $9.3 million.
The October 16 figure was a $12.7 million outflow. Therefore, product demand had not turned positive before the upgrade. A series of subscriptions over multiple weeks would provide stronger evidence.
A large treasury sale is already disclosed
SkyAI said it sold all of its SOL as of October 16. It now holds approximately $223.8 million in cash. The company is pursuing a cash tender offer.
SkyAI once held more than 2 million SOL. Its exit is a fact about October supply. It does not forecast that every treasury will sell.