Solana price falls ahead of Alpenglow upgrade, dropping 9.34% over seven days to around $107. Consequently, SOL trades near $107 at press time. Its daily trading volume is about $2.86 billion. Its market cap is $63.02 billion.
Why Solana price falls ahead of Alpenglow upgrade
The Solana Foundation will activate Alpenglow on October 21. This upgrade cuts transaction finality from 12.8 seconds to 150 milliseconds. Nevertheless, SOL remains below key resistance at $110 and $115.
Solana retreated from late-September highs near $123. It previously rebounded from August lows around $75. But the latest decline weakened its short-term structure.
During October 14, SOL hovered around $107.06. It opened near $106.72. Its daily high was $108.20. Its daily low was $106.68. Therefore, price sits near support at $104–$105.
Solana remains below its 20-day simple moving average of $115.83. The Bollinger Bands place the upper boundary at $127.20. The lower boundary is $104.45. Thus, SOL trades closer to the lower end.
A sustained decline below $104.45 could expose $100. If selling continues, $95–$98 becomes the next support area.
For a recovery, SOL must reclaim $110. Then it can approach stronger resistance near $115.83. Moving above the 20-day average would improve the short-term structure. The $120–$123 zone remains another resistance area.
The Relative Strength Index stood at 41.58. Its moving average is 52.41. The RSI below 50 suggests sellers remain stronger. However, SOL has not reached the oversold level of 30.
Analyst sees downside risk before recovery
Analyst Crypto Patel identified similar downside risk. He said SOL broke below its local price structure. It also remains under resistance around $112.39.
His analysis placed a buying zone between $103 and $96. He focused on $95.63–$101.27. A decline into this region could precede another recovery. That recovery requires a higher low and a bullish reversal.
Patel identified $125 and $150 as possible upside targets. However, sustained trading below $95.63 would invalidate his bullish setup.
Solana Alpenglow upgrade scheduled for October 21
The Solana Foundation confirmed Alpenglow activation for epoch 1064. That begins around 15:00 UTC on October 21. The upgrade replaces TowerBFT. Solana has used TowerBFT since 2020.
Its new voting system is called Votor. Votor targets transaction finality of about 150 milliseconds. Current finality is about 12.8 seconds.
Transaction finality means a transaction cannot be reversed. Solana transactions appear successful almost immediately. But applications wait longer for stronger confirmation.
Alpenglow changes how validators reach agreement. Validators will exchange votes directly. They will combine approvals into certificates. Those certificates finalize blocks.
The upgrade will not change ordinary transaction execution. Wallets and dApps should continue operating through the transition.
The activation includes a temporary period. Solana will use TowerBFT for the first 5,000 slots of epoch 1064. Alpenglow then takes over about 18 minutes later.
Validator operators must prepare before activation. They need software built on Agave 4.3.0. Firedancer and Frankendancer will not support the initial migration. Operators using those clients must switch temporarily.
Validator expenses will also change. Existing voting costs are about 1 SOL per epoch. A 0.8 SOL Validator Admission Ticket will replace them. Each validator pays from its vote account.
The upgrade could change network statistics. Voting transactions will no longer appear inside blocks. Therefore, reported transaction counts may decline. Ordinary user activity may remain unchanged.
Earlier testing established the October target. Developers completed preparatory work through Agave 4.2. The Foundation confirmed the activation date. However, the 150-millisecond target depends on actual network performance.
Solana ETFs record seven consecutive days of outflows
Institutional data provides another concern. U.S. spot Solana ETFs recorded about $1.04 million in net outflows on October 13. This extended a seven-day withdrawal streak.
The October 13 figures placed cumulative net inflows at about $1.58 billion. Total net assets stood near $1.71 billion. Trading volume reached $64.26 million during the session.
The daily net outflow means investors withdrew more than they invested. The figure does not show every fund had withdrawals. Despite recent outflows, cumulative inflows remained positive. Thus, the products still attracted more capital than they lost since launch.
The seven-day streak occurred as SOL declined last week. However, available data does not prove ETF redemptions caused the price weakness. With Alpenglow set for October 21, future flow reports will show institutional demand.
Can Solana recover to $150 after the upgrade?
The technical outlook remains divided. Daily indicators look weak. Yet some analysts monitor a possible recovery from lower support.
Analyst Sweep reported a bullish divergence on SOL’s chart. He said selling momentum could be weakening. He compared it with an earlier divergence. That earlier signal preceded a 30% rally. However, the comparison does not guarantee a repeat.
Daily indicators still favor caution. SOL remains below its 20-day moving average. The RSI at 41.58 shows buying pressure has not recovered.
Patel’s outlook identified $113 as immediate resistance. Possible recovery targets are $125 and $150. His bullish scenario requires a confirmed improvement. That improvement must follow a decline into the $96–$103 demand region.
A move above $110 would indicate improving momentum. Reclaiming $115.83 would place SOL above its 20-day average. Failure to hold $104–$105 would expose $100.
The Solana Foundation scheduled activation for epoch 1064. Validators must complete software migration before that epoch. They must also maintain at least 0.8 SOL above the rent-exempt minimum. The Foundation provided a verification method. The getAgGenesisCert RPC command returns the Alpenglow genesis certificate. Before activation, the command returns null.
Key levels to watch
SOL faces resistance at $110 and $115.83. Support sits at $104.45 and $100. A break below $100 could target $95–$98. A recovery above $115.83 could open $120–$123. Therefore, traders should watch these levels closely.