Bitcoin is gearing up for its largest monthly options expiry of 2024, worth $13.6 billion. This key event could set the stage for Bitcoin’s next major rally, with bulls aiming to push the price past $100,000.
Bitcoin Options: What’s at Stake?
Scheduled for November 29, the expiry features $7.4 billion in call (buy) options and $6.2 billion in put (sell) options. Bulls currently hold the upper hand, with call options outpacing put options by 19%.
Interestingly, only 20% of call options target $100,000 or higher, representing $4.25 billion in notional value. Meanwhile, less than 2% of put options have strike prices at or above $100,000, effectively reducing their value to just $80 million.
Market Trends and Investor Sentiment
Recent macroeconomic signals reflect caution among traditional investors. For example, the S&P 500 has struggled to stay above 6,000, while U.S. Treasury yields have dropped from 4.35% to 4.12%.
Amid this uncertainty, Bitcoin has shown resilience. Despite a 34% monthly gain, BTC rebounded 5% from a $90,775 low on November 26. This indicates strong confidence among crypto investors, even in volatile conditions.
Key Price Scenarios for Bitcoin Options
Based on current price trends, here are the most probable outcomes for Bitcoin’s November 29 expiry on the Deribit exchange:
- $86,000–$90,000: Net gains favor call options by $1.65 billion.
- $90,000–$94,000: Net gains favor call options by $2.6 billion.
- $94,000–$98,000: Net gains favor call options by $3.55 billion.
- $98,000–$102,000: Net gains favor call options by $4.58 billion.
For bears to gain control, Bitcoin’s price would need to fall below $90,000.
Will Bitcoin Hit $100K?
Bitcoin’s recent performance amid inflation concerns hints at a strong bullish momentum. While external factors like U.S. economic policies could add volatility, the $13.6 billion options expiry could be a turning point.
If bulls sustain their pressure, Bitcoin may break the $100,000 barrier shortly after the expiry, setting new milestones for the cryptocurrency market.
