Bitcoin trend reversal caution is the name of the game right now. According to CryptoQuant contributor Maartun, the market still shows signs of a bear market rally – not a full trend reversal. In an April 20 video, he highlighted a split among investors: long-term holders are accumulating, while larger holders (whales) are sending coins to exchanges.
Over the past 30 days, long-term holders added about 354,000 BTC. That’s “structural accumulation,” Maartun said. These investors are moving coins out of active circulation, signaling longer-term confidence. At the same time, wallets holding more than 100 BTC increased exchange inflows – a pattern linked to active selling during the recent rebound.
Bitcoin Trend Reversal Caution: Strategy’s Raise Didn’t Move the Needle
Maartun also pointed to Strategy’s recent capital raise as a red flag. The company raised about $2.66 billion, including $1.56 billion on April 14 alone. Yet Bitcoin barely reacted. When large capital inflows fail to push price through resistance, it suggests sellers are still active. That’s a classic warning sign.
Short-term holders are adding pressure, too. They moved about 60,000 BTC to exchanges while the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) stayed below one. Translation: many traders sold at a loss instead of waiting for higher prices.
Key Levels to Watch
Bitcoin currently trades below the short-term holder realized price near $83,000. Maartun calls that the market’s main pivot. Until price clears that level, caution is warranted. Another barrier is the Traders’ On-Chain Realized Price near $76,800.
On the positive side, Binance’s Bitcoin reserves fell to about 619,000 BTC – the lowest since October 2025. Lower exchange balances reduce immediately available supply. Plus, spot Bitcoin ETFs added 25,600 BTC last week, pushing total holdings close to five-month highs. So, there’s support underneath.
My Thoughts
This is a market of two minds. Long-term believers are stacking sats, while smart money whales are using the rally to de-risk. The muted reaction to Strategy’s $2.66 billion injection is genuinely concerning – if that kind of buying power can’t break resistance, what will? That said, exchange outflows and ETF inflows are creating a supply squeeze underneath. The next few weeks are critical. If Bitcoin can clear $83,000, the narrative flips bullish. If it fails and drops below $70,000, we could retest the lows. For now, I’m watching the whales. When they stop selling, I’ll start buying.
