Bitcoin is at a critical technical juncture, battling to hold the $110,000 support level after a recent dip. While some analysts see this as a promising higher low, others warn that a deeper retracement toward $100,000 is still possible—a move that would perfectly align with historical Fibonacci retracement patterns from previous bull market dips.
The Bull Case: Holding Key Support
For the optimists, the current price action is actually encouraging. BTC/USD gained about 1% to hit local highs of $111,369, successfully preserving the crucial $110,000 support level.
As noted by analyst Michaël van de Poppe, Bitcoin has formed a “new higher low” while holding this support. He argues that a break above $112,000 could be the spark that “fires up the bull run” again.
The Bear Case: A Potential Drop to $100,000
Other traders are more cautious, outlining a binary outcome based on a key resistance level.
- Trader Crypto Tony stated categorically: “We either flip $113,000 and pump to new highs, or if we reject here we drop to $100,000.”
- TurboBullCapital highlighted the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $101,760 as a critical downside target if the $107,000 area is lost.
This more cautious perspective is based on weekly chart analysis and key moving averages.
Fibonacci Analysis: The $100,000 “Worst Case Scenario”
The most compelling argument for a potential dip comes from Fibonacci retracement analysis. This technical tool measures the depth of pullbacks within a trend.
Popular trader ZYN observed a clear historical pattern: “$BTC usually bottoms at the 0.382 Fibonacci level. This happened in Q3 2024, Q2 2025 and will probably happen again.”
Currently, that 0.382 level sits right around $100,000. This would represent a 10% drop from current prices. While significant, this would be a entirely normal and healthy correction within a bull market.
The Big Picture: A Setup for a Massive Squeeze?
Some theories suggest this entire consolidation could be a setup for a major move. As previously reported, one idea is that market makers could be manipulating order books to trap short sellers.
If this plays out, a giant short squeeze could rapidly propel Bitcoin to new all-time highs, mirroring the explosive price action seen in late 2024.
The Bottom Line
Bitcoin is currently caught between two narratives: one of strong support and imminent breakout, and another of a needed deeper retest. The $100,000 level represents a logical and historically consistent “worst-case” bounce zone based on Fibonacci principles.
For investors, this means the current range between $110,000 and $113,000 is critically important. A breakout above could signal the next leg up, while a rejection could lead to a final shakeout before the next massive rally toward $150,000 and beyond.
