Bitcoin hits 200-day resistance at $82,400. Now, a reversal could be coming.
CryptoQuant issued a warning on Wednesday. The crypto analytics firm said Bitcoin is at risk of falling into a downtrend. Why? Because the price just touched a major bear market resistance level based on its 200-day moving average.
Bitcoin hits 200-day resistance after six-week rally
Bitcoin has rallied since early April. Back then, it fell to $66,000. Over six weeks, it climbed to the200−day MA of $82,400.
“The 200-day MA was a major resistance in the 2022 bear market,” CryptoQuant said. “The price resumed its downward trend after hitting it in March of that year. The current setup raises the question of whether history repeats.”
Some traders remain bullish. They expect a rally if the Senate moves forward with the CLARITY Act. Others point to more money printing in the US as a tailwind. However, CryptoQuant’s signals point the other way.
Traders are already taking profits
Adding to the bearish outlook, unrealized profit margins reached 17.7% on May 5. That is the highest level since June last year. The firm said this indicates “potential selling pressure to take profits.”
“These margin levels mirror those seen in March 2022, precisely when Bitcoin last tested the 200-day MA before resuming its decline,” CryptoQuant added.
In the last 24 hours, Bitcoin fell 2.3% to $79,300. The dip came after the US Labor Department said producer prices jumped 1.4% in April. That is the biggest increase in four years and another sign of rising inflation.
Daily realized profits also spiked. Last week, traders cashed out 14,600 Bitcoin (nearly $1.2 billion) on May 4. That is the highest level since early December.
“Historically, spikes of this magnitude in bear market rallies have preceded local price tops,” CryptoQuant said.
Where is the support?
If Bitcoin falls further, the next support sits around $70,000. That is the average price at which all Bitcoin was last transacted (realized price).
“This level has historically acted as a key resistance-turned-support band during bear markets,” CryptoQuant said. “It represents the average cost basis of short-term traders and the level at which unrealized profit margins compress back toward zero, reducing the incentive for further selling.”
Not everyone agrees
Other analysts remain bullish. MN Capital founder Michaël van de Poppe posted on X that Bitcoin “might see a fast move” to $90,000 if the CLARITY Act advances.
Arthur Hayes, investment chief of Maelstrom, said on Tuesday that Bitcoin retaking its all‑time peak of $126,000 is a “foregone conclusion.” He predicted that the Iran war and US‑China AI competition will force more money printing. That would cause inflation and push traders toward Bitcoin.
