Bitcoin investors are bracing for a massive $16.5 billion options expiry on March 28. While this could cause price swings in either direction, the recent drop below $90,000 has weakened bullish positions.
Bitcoin Bulls Lose Their Advantage
Currently, call (buy) options hold $10.5 billion in open interest, while put (sell) options total $6 billion. However, $7.6 billion of call options are set at $92,000 or higher, requiring a 6.4% price increase for profitability. This shift has diminished bullish leverage, giving bears a chance to escape a $3 billion loss.
Will Bitcoin Decouple from the Stock Market?
Analysts believe Bitcoin’s struggle stems from the global tariff war and U.S. government spending cuts, raising concerns about a possible recession. Bitcoin’s 40-day correlation with the stock market has stayed above 70% since early March, mirroring broader economic uncertainty.
However, Bitcoin adoption by companies like GameStop (GME), Rumble (RUM), Metaplanet (TYO:3350), and Semler Scientific (SMLR) fuels bullish optimism. Investors are hopeful that central bank monetary expansion will drive Bitcoin’s growth, enabling it to break free from stock market trends.
Bulls and Bears Battle for Price Control
With the March 28 expiry approaching, both bulls and bears aim to influence Bitcoin’s price:
- Bulls need BTC above $90,000 to regain momentum.
- Bears must push BTC below $84,000 to increase put option values.
Bitcoin’s largest options market is Deribit, holding a 74% share, followed by CME (8.5%) and Binance (8%).
Key Price Scenarios for Bitcoin’s Options Expiry
Here are potential outcomes based on current price trends:
- $81,000 – $85,000: $2.7B in calls vs. $2.6B in puts → Bulls gain $100M
- $85,000 – $88,000: $3.3B in calls vs. $2B in puts → Bulls gain $1.3B
- $88,000 – $90,000: $3.4B in calls vs. $1.8B in puts → Bulls gain $1.6B
- $90,000 – $92,000: $4.4B in calls vs. $1.4B in puts → Bulls gain $3B
Bulls Need Momentum for an April Rally
For Bitcoin to reclaim bullish momentum, it must rise above $90,000 before expiry. If ETF inflows pick up, this could drive an uptrend into April. Conversely, if bears succeed in dragging BTC below $84,000, they could strengthen their grip on the market.