Bitcoin Rebound Could Slow as Futures Market Lags

A technical visualization of the key question: Can the Bitcoin rebound survive the current disconnect in the futures market?

Bitcoin rebound could slow due to weak futures market activity. On Monday, BTC rallied toward $64,000. However, derivatives data suggests the recovery may lose momentum.

Why the Bitcoin rebound could slow despite spot buying

Traders placed nearly $162 million in buy orders between $57,000 and $59,000. Consequently, this formed one of the largest visible liquidity clusters below current pricing. That may set the stage for BTC’s next move.

For example, aggregated futures open interest fell to 255,000 BTC from 282,000 BTC during the selloff. Although Bitcoin has recovered from its drop to $59,000, the open interest remains well below last week’s peak.

BTC price, spot and futures CVD and funding rate. Source: TradingView

The funding rate has also turned slightly positive at 0.0013 after briefly dipping below zero. Therefore, futures traders are leaning long. Nevertheless, leverage remains relatively muted compared with levels seen before the decline.

Spot market activity offers a minor sign of stabilization. Specifically, the aggregated spot cumulative volume delta (CVD) has improved by 11,000 BTC since last Friday. This shift points to a slowdown in aggressive selling after several weeks of persistent distribution.

Crypto trader Max Trades reached a similar conclusion. He noted that open interest cooled noticeably during the bounce while funding flipped slightly positive. According to him, the move appears to be driven in part by short positions being closed rather than aggressive new longs entering the market.

Leverage reset and liquidity clusters

Alphractal CEO Joao Wedson said Bitcoin has exited an “extreme leverage” phase. Consequently, it has moved into moderate leverage territory following last week’s liquidations. However, he added that the market has not yet reached historical levels associated with extreme deleveraging. That zone has often offered stronger accumulation opportunities.

Data shows that dip buyers have placed approximately 2,565 BTC in bid liquidity between $57,000 and $59,000. At current prices near $63,300, those buy orders are worth $162 million. Bid liquidity refers to limit buy orders waiting below the market price. Therefore, if Bitcoin trades into those levels, the orders may absorb selling pressure and support a rebound if demand outweighs available supply.

Market analyst exitpump highlighted a similar concentration on Binance’s spot order book. He noted that the thick liquidity below $60,000 may lead to consolidation and further open interest resets.

Six-week pattern adds focus to midweek action

Trader LP NXT pointed to a six‑week pattern. Specifically, Monday pivot highs and lows have consistently been followed by the opposite pivot on Wednesday. For example, a Monday high has typically preceded a midweek low and relief rally. Conversely, a Monday low has often led to a Wednesday high and renewed price weakness.

The streak currently stands at six‑for‑six. Therefore, this week’s midweek price action is under additional focus as Bitcoin trades between support liquidity below $60,000 and resistance near $64,000.

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