BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has laid out a radical and controversial vision for the U.S. economy in a hypothetical second Trump administration. His latest Arthur Hayes Bitcoin prediction suggests sweeping monetary policy reversals which would ultimately be extremely bullish for Bitcoin.
The Plan: A “Packed” Federal Reserve
In his “Four, Seven” essay, Arthur Hayes Bitcoin prediction outlines a scenario under which the new administration tries to bring an end to the Federal Reserve’s independence. The proposal would entail the replacement of the Fed’s seven-member Board of Governors with political allies. By early 2026, that would grant the White House a voting majority, effectively giving the White House direct control over the nation’s money supply.
The Goal: Yield Curve Control for “Main Street”
Under Fed dominion, the next would be Yield Curve Control, or YCC. This policy caps interest rates so that borrowing for the government stays cheap. Hayes calls this potential project “QE for Poor People” because it would try to boost lending to small and medium-sized businesses and not to large corporations.
But it would require staggering credit expansion—over $15 trillion. So much fresh money would probably drop the U.S. dollar by a good deal more.
The Result: A Bullish Bitcoin Argument
This is where the Bitcoin prediction of Arthur Hayes comes in interesting to crypto investors. Hayes predicts that a devalued dollar would push investors into hard assets with limited supply, like Bitcoin.
Using a pandemic-era credit growth model, he predicts that the value of Bitcoin will reach a whopping $3.4 million in 2028. While he admits this figure to be highly speculative, he is still highly optimistic about Bitcoin’s trajectory in such a situation.
Arthur Hayes Bitcoin prediction : A Word of Caution
It should be noted that this forecast is extremely controversial. Any politicization of the Federal Reserve would encounter ferocious political and legal resistance. Nevertheless, Hayes’s analysis provides a compelling perspective through which to consider the manner in which shifting geopolitics could directly affect Bitcoin’s long-term value.
