Political Drama Meets Monetary Policy: The Fed Chair Race Escalates
The high-stakes search for the next Federal Reserve Chair is entering a critical phase, and the outcome could be massively bullish for crypto. President Donald Trump is set to interview BlackRock’s Chief Investment Officer, Rick Rieder, in the final week of December. This move tightens the Fed chair race to a shortlist of four candidates, each signaling a strong willingness to cut interest rates—a potential game-changer for market liquidity.
Breaking Down the Final Four Candidates
The president’s shortlist is now clear: former advisor Kevin Hassett, ex-Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, current Fed Governor Chris Waller, and BlackRock’s Rick Rieder. Crucially, Trump has made “larger rate cuts” a litmus test for his nominee. Hassett and Waller have publicly supported this dovish stance, while Warsh is said to largely agree with the president on rates. Rieder has historically voiced support for cuts, though his current view is less clear.
This political pressure for a dovish pivot directly impacts crypto. Lower rates weaken the U.S. dollar and make high-growth, risk-on assets like Bitcoin exponentially more attractive. The next Fed Chair could effectively unlock the floodgates of institutional capital into digital assets.
Crypto Traders Are Betting on the Outcome
The crypto community isn’t just watching—it’s wagering. On the prediction platform Polymarket, Kevin Hassett has reclaimed the favorite position with a 52% chance of being nominated. Rick Rieder’s odds have jumped to 6.5% ahead of his interview. This speculative betting highlights how deeply crypto markets are intertwined with macro-political developments.
The winner of this Fed chair race will likely shape monetary policy for years, directly influencing the liquidity cycle that crypto bull markets are built upon.
My Thoughts
This is the most important macro story for 2025. The Fed chair race is essentially a contest to appoint the most accommodative central banker. For crypto, this is a dream scenario. A politicized Fed focused on rate cuts could create a liquidity environment reminiscent of 2020-2021, but with the added fuel of institutional ETF infrastructure already in place. This political process is a stealth bullish catalyst that isn’t fully priced in yet.
