Bitcoin ETF inflows

On November 10, Bitcoin ETF inflows came roaring back: a $523.98 million net inflow — the largest single-day intake since October 7. The jump follows a mechanically tiny $1.2M inflow the day before and marks the second straight day of positive flows, a welcome sign for institutions and traders watching ETF behavior as a structural demand signal.

Bitcoin ETF inflows: November 10 breakdown

The headline $523.98M was driven largely by three major managers:

• BlackRock — $224.2M net inflow
• Fidelity (FBTC) — $165.9M net inflow
• ARK Invest — $102.5M net inflow

Those three accounted for $492.6M of the total; the remaining ~$31.38M came from other issuers and smaller managers, bringing the full day to $523.98M. The size and concentration of these inflows suggest several large institutions were adding fresh exposure to spot Bitcoin via ETF wrappers.

Market context and price action

Price: Bitcoin has been range-bound between $101K and $107K for the last three weeks and was trading around $101.8K after the Nov 10 flows. Volatility is unusually muted — near multi-year lows — with flattened momentum indicators and neutral funding rates. Even so, fundamentals show steady support:

• ETFs: Two consecutive inflow days (albeit the first was just $1.2M) point to a tentative return of institutional demand.
• Open Interest: Futures OI remains sizable, indicating that derivative desks are still active.
• Sentiment: Overall market sentiment looks neutral rather than euphoric — a setup many traders prefer before a major move.

Why Bitcoin ETF inflows matter now

ETF flows are a structural source of demand: large, sustained inflows can absorb spot liquidity and support higher prices over time. The Nov 10 pickup is significant for three reasons:

1. Scale: Half-a-billion in a single day is a material demand event for spot markets.
2. Concentration: Major, reputable issuers (BlackRock, Fidelity, ARK) led the charge — this is not retail momentum but institutional allocation.
3. Momentum setup: Calm price action + renewed flows + neutral funding often precede breakout moves rather than capitulation.

Put simply, the flows suggest institutions are quietly buying while short-term traders sit on the sidelines — a pattern that historically precedes larger upward moves.

Upside outlook — targets and catalysts

If Bitcoin holds $102K–$103K as a base, the path higher becomes clearer. Near-term technical targets and macro catalysts to watch:

• Immediate resistance: $108K–$110K — a close above this zone would be bullish and could trigger momentum buying.
• Next objectives: $130K and the $130K–$150K band if momentum and ETF inflows accelerate.
• Longer-term: $200K remains in many institutional models if macro conditions (rate cuts, increased corporate adoption, more ETF AUM) align.
• Catalysts: additional steady ETF inflows, clearer macro easing, and more corporate treasury announcements would all accelerate the move.

Final thoughts

November 10’s Bitcoin ETF inflows — led by BlackRock, Fidelity and ARK — mark a meaningful shift from days of redemptions to renewed institutional demand. The market is quiet, positioning is cautious, and yet structural buyers are reappearing. Calm markets like this have historically preceded big breakouts; now the question is whether continued flows and improving macro conditions will be the trigger.

The bleeding has finally stopped! In a major psychological victory for bulls, spot Bitcoin ETFs snapped a brutal six-day outflow streak, recording a solid $240 million in net Bitcoin ETF inflows on November 6th.

Bitcoin ETF Inflows Return in Bullish Reversal as $100K Holds Firm

This crucial reversal helped Bitcoin fiercely defend the critical $100,000 support level after a punishing 16% weekly decline. The positive flow was mirrored in Ethereum ETFs, which also saw their first inflows in nearly a week. While the Fear and Greed Index remains deep in “Extreme Fear” at 21, this shift in ETF momentum could be the first sign that institutional buyers are finally stepping back in.

Not Out of the Woods Yet: Key Capitiation Metrics Still Missing

Despite the welcome ETF news, on-chain data suggests we may not have seen a true market bottom yet. Analytics from CryptoQuant reveal that exchange reserves on Binance are still rising, indicating traders continue to deposit BTC—a common precursor to selling. Furthermore, the Coinbase Premium Index remains negative, showing a lack of aggressive buying from U.S. investors that typically marks a durable low. The Short-Term Holder Realized Profit Ratio also hasn’t reached the extreme panic levels seen at past bottoms. This means that while the Bitcoin ETF inflows are a positive start, sustained buying is needed to confirm a trend reversal.

The Silent Accumulation by Long-Term Holders

Here’s the hidden bullish narrative: while short-term traders panic, long-term holders are quietly accumulating. The realized price for these “permanent holders”—wallets that have never sold—has climbed to $78,520. This group, believed to be institutions and whales, is effectively absorbing all the selling pressure from weak hands. As long as Bitcoin stays above this key $78.5K cost basis, a full-scale “crypto winter” remains unlikely. This creates a powerful underlying support zone that could launch the next leg up once sentiment improves.

Technical Outlook: The Battle for $100,000 and Beyond

Technically, the battle lines are clearly drawn. Bitcoin is currently clinging to the $101,000 level, with immediate resistance looming between $103,000 and $108,000. The RSI at 35 indicates the asset is oversold, and the MACD is hinting at a potential bullish convergence. If bulls can defend $100,000 and capitalize on the returning Bitcoin ETF inflows, a relief rally toward $108,000 or even $115,000 is possible. However, a breakdown below the psychological $100,000 level could trigger a swift move down to test the $95,000 support.

My Thoughts

This is a critical inflection point. The return of ETF inflows is the first step to restoring confidence, but the market needs to see follow-through. I’m watching the Coinbase Premium closely for a return to positive territory, which would signal that U.S. buyers are back in force. The long-term holder accumulation is the most bullish data point; it tells me smart money is positioning for the next cycle high. I’m cautiously optimistic that we’ve found a near-term bottom.