Bitcoin Defies the BOJ Rate Hike Curse (For Now)
History was supposed to repeat itself. The Bank of Japan just executed its second BOJ rate hike of 2025, lifting rates to 0.75%—a 30-year high—and signaling more to come. Traditionally, this is a red alert for Bitcoin, as previous hikes triggered devastating 23-31% crashes. Yet, BTC is wavering, not collapsing. What changed, and can the defiance last?
Why This BOJ Rate Hike is Different
The feared mechanism is the “Yen carry trade” unwind. Historically, investors borrowed cheap Yen to buy risk assets like Bitcoin. Rate hikes make this trade less attractive, prompting sell-offs. However, this time, the Yen weakened post-announcement, staying around 156 per dollar. This indicates markets had fully priced in the move, minimizing the immediate rush for the exits.
Furthermore, the macro backdrop has shifted. The U.S. is staring down rate cuts after soft CPI data, creating a divergent policy path. This cushions the global liquidity blow from Japan’s tightening. Bitcoin’s current range-bound action between $85K-$88K reflects this tense tug-of-war between a historical bearish catalyst and a newly bullish Fed outlook.
Near-Term Danger vs. Long-Term Bullishness
Don’t get complacent. Significant near-term risks remain. Bitcoin faces a “triple witching” options expiry, which could spark volatility. Technically, a break below the $85,100 support could accelerate selling toward $80,000.
However, the long-term picture is transforming. Analysts like 10x Research note that while the near-term stance is bearish, 2026-2028 presents a “compelling buying opportunity” for a larger upside move. The key takeaway? This BOJ rate hike may mark a painful consolidation period, not the start of a catastrophic bear market.
My Take
This is a potential paradigm shift. Bitcoin’s resilience suggests its market maturity and decoupling from a single macro trigger. The BOJ rate hike is being processed within a broader global liquidity context, which is now improving. I see this as a high-stakes consolidation. If BTC holds above $85K through this volatility, it will prove its strength and set the stage for a 2025 rally once the overhang clears. The curse isn’t broken, but it’s bending.