btc

Bitcoin’s price has historically followed predictable cycles, often experiencing bear traps before reaching new all-time highs. Some analysts believe Bitcoin is currently in such a phase, suggesting that a major bull run could be on the horizon.

What Is a Bitcoin Bear Trap?

A bear trap occurs when an asset’s price drops sharply, convincing investors that a prolonged downtrend is beginning. However, the price quickly rebounds, catching those who sold at a loss. This pattern is common in stocks, crypto, and indices.

According to crypto analyst Finish, Bitcoin’s bull cycles typically last nine months, with bear traps appearing around the sixth month. Each time, Bitcoin’s price dips, triggering panic, before reversing to new highs.

Historical data from 2011, 2013, 2017, and 2021 suggests this pattern is repeating in 2024–2025. Finish predicts, “The 2025 cycle is the same. Six-month bear trap, then a new ATH.”

Historical Bear Traps and Their Causes

Each Bitcoin bear trap has been triggered by key market events:

• 2013: Bitcoin crashed after the Silk Road shutdown and China’s crypto ban.
• 2017: The ICO boom drove Bitcoin to $20,000, but a bear trap followed after the CME Bitcoin futures launch and Tether transparency concerns.
• 2021: Bitcoin hit $69,000, but market hype and Elon Musk’s Bitcoin payment reversal triggered a bear trap.

For 2024–2025, Finish believes macroeconomic factors, including US President Donald Trump’s policies, are influencing Bitcoin’s price movement.

Will Bitcoin’s Bull Run Start in 2025?

Crypto analyst Danny shares a bullish outlook, predicting Bitcoin’s biggest rally will begin in April 2025. He suggests that Bitcoin could reach $300,000 by 2026, stating:

However, not all analysts agree. Ecoinometrics notes that Bitcoin’s growth rate in this cycle is slower than in previous ones. Meanwhile, CryptoQuant’s Ki Young Ju suggests that Bitcoin’s bull run may have already ended based on profit and loss cycle signals.

Final Thoughts

Bitcoin’s current market phase is highly debated. While some analysts expect a massive rally in 2025, others believe the bull run may have peaked. Investors should watch key indicators and macroeconomic trends to gauge the market’s next move.

Bitcoin briefly fell below $80,000 on Monday, reaching a four-month low of $77,393. This decline triggered a surge in miner sell-offs, increasing selling pressure and weakening market sentiment.

On-chain data shows a significant rise in BTC transfers to exchanges, a bearish signal that suggests miners are offloading assets to cover costs.

Miners Increase Selling as Bitcoin Hits Multi-Month Low

As Bitcoin’s price dropped, miner transfers to exchanges surged. CryptoQuant data shows the Miner-to-Exchange Flow spiked to 11,250 BTC, signaling that miners were liquidating their holdings.

When miners sell in large volumes, it often leads to further price declines. Their netflow metric—which tracks the difference between BTC sold and bought—turned negative at -620.01, confirming that more Bitcoin is being sold than accumulated.

This trend suggests continued downside risk, as miners selling to cover expenses could push BTC lower.

Bitcoin Struggles at $80K – More Downside Ahead?

Bitcoin is currently trading at $81,686, down 1% in the past 24 hours. Its trading volume has surged over 50%, reflecting intense selling activity.

🔴 Possible price scenarios:

• If selling pressure continues, BTC could drop to $73,631.
• If demand absorbs the supply, Bitcoin could rebound to $86,601.

For now, BTC remains at risk, and its ability to hold above $80,000 will be key in determining its short-term direction.

Bitcoin (BTC) has plunged to a three-month low, wiping out its post-election gains following Donald Trump’s victory. While many blamed the drop on Trump’s tariffs and the Bybit hack, analysts now point to a deeper structural issue.

Why Is Bitcoin Crashing?

Crypto analyst Kyle Chasse believes the current crash is linked to the unwinding of a cash and carry trade, which has been suppressing Bitcoin’s price for months.

Hedge funds used a low-risk arbitrage strategy, buying Bitcoin spot ETFs (such as BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC) while shorting BTC futures on the CME. This allowed them to farm a steady yield of 5.68% per year. Some funds leveraged their positions, increasing returns even further.

However, this trade is now collapsing, forcing hedge funds to pull liquidity, triggering Bitcoin’s rapid decline.

$1.9 Billion in Bitcoin Sold: A Market in Free Fall

📉 Key Impacts of the Cash & Carry Unwind:
✔ $1.9 billion in BTC sold in the past week
✔ CME open interest plummeting as hedge funds exit positions
✔ Bitcoin price dropping by double digits within days

Chasse emphasizes that hedge funds never invested in Bitcoin for its long-term potential. Instead, they were exploiting arbitrage for short-term, risk-free gains. Now that the trade has ended, they are rapidly withdrawing funds, leaving the market in chaos.

🗣️ “Hedge funds don’t care about Bitcoin. They weren’t betting on BTC skyrocketing. They were farming yield. Now that the trade is dead, they’re pulling liquidity—leaving the market in free fall.” — Kyle Chasse

Can Bitcoin Find Support at $70,000?

Before analysts identified this structural issue, many traders blamed the crash on Trump’s tariffs on the EU and the Bybit hack. While these factors added to investor fears, the primary cause remains the unwinding of leveraged positions.

🔍 Looking Ahead:
✔ More forced selling expected as hedge funds clear positions
✔ Increased volatility as leveraged trades get liquidated
✔ Bitcoin may test $70,000, a key support level

At this price, 6.76 million addresses hold 2.64 million BTC, acquired at an average of $65,296. This strong buying zone could prevent further losses.

📊 While ETF-driven demand was real, it was heavily influenced by arbitrage traders. With them gone, the market is undergoing a necessary reset, setting the stage for Bitcoin’s next big move.

Final Thoughts: What’s Next for Bitcoin?

Bitcoin’s recent plunge highlights the impact of institutional trading strategies on price movements. With hedge funds exiting the market, volatility is expected to continue. However, if long-term holders step in, Bitcoin could stabilize around $70,000.

Will Bitcoin recover, or is more downside ahead? Let us know your thoughts!

Bitcoin’s price has taken a sharp downturn, crashing below $90,000 after failing to hold key support levels. The decline marks a continued struggle to maintain momentum, pulling BTC further away from the highly anticipated $100K milestone.

One major factor driving the drop is the behavior of short-term holders (STHs), who are showing signs of increased selling pressure as market sentiment shifts.

Short-Term Holders Increase Sell Pressure

The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) for short-term holders is struggling to reclaim the bullish 1.0 threshold. Staying above this level indicates profitability and confidence among traders. However, its failure to do so suggests rising sell pressure.

If the SOPR remains below 1.0, more short-term holders may liquidate their positions, potentially leading to further losses. Historically, STHs are quick to sell in volatile conditions, accelerating downward trends.

Bitcoin Exchange Outflows Remain Low

Despite the price drop, Bitcoin outflows from exchanges remain relatively low. In the last 24 hours, only 157 BTC worth $14 million left major exchanges. This suggests that while prices are falling, many investors are holding onto their assets instead of panic selling.

This hesitation to sell could indicate a potential market stabilization, as traders wait for signs of a reversal before making further moves.

Bitcoin Faces Key Support at $87K

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $88,449, its lowest level since November 2024, following an 8% drop in the past 24 hours.

BTC has now lost its downtrend line support, which had held for over a month. The next major support sits at $87,041. If Bitcoin maintains this level, a bounce-back could be possible.

To confirm a recovery, Bitcoin needs to break resistance at $89,800 and push toward $92,005. However, if BTC falls below $87K, the sell-off could intensify, sending prices toward $85K and extending the bearish trend.

Final Thoughts: Is a Recovery Coming?

Bitcoin’s recent decline highlights short-term holder sentiment and market uncertainty. While some traders continue to sell, the lack of massive exchange outflows suggests that many are still holding out for a rebound.

The next few days will be critical. If Bitcoin defends $87K, a recovery could be on the horizon. But a drop below this key level could mean further downside for investors.