Bitcoin (BTC) enters the second week of May with mixed signals. On one hand, trend strength is building. On the other, bearish momentum and macro uncertainty are weighing on price action.
Bulls Build Strength, But Bears Still Hold Control
The Directional Movement Index (DMI) shows rising trend strength. The ADX, which measures how strong a trend is, has climbed to 25.93, up sharply from 15.97 two days ago. This indicates volatility is increasing, and a new directional move could be forming.
However, bears remain in charge. The -DI (bearish indicator) is still stronger than the +DI (bullish indicator), even though bullish momentum has recovered slightly. Until bulls reclaim the lead, Bitcoin may remain under pressure.
Bitcoin Trades Below Cloud, Momentum Slows
Bitcoin is also stuck beneath the Ichimoku Cloud, a technical indicator that reflects trend direction. Currently, price action is hovering near the Kijun-sen (baseline), suggesting a lack of momentum. The cloud is thin, signaling weak support.
Key indicators like the Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen are flat and overlapping. This typically precedes sideways movement or delayed trends. For a bullish reversal, BTC needs to break decisively above the cloud, supported by rising volume.
Support Holds, but $100K Still Uncertain
BTC continues to hold above the $92,900 support zone. Since late April, it has bounced from this level multiple times. Despite the weakness in short-term exponential moving averages (EMAs), the long-term structure remains bullish.
But there’s a catch. If Bitcoin drops below this support, it could fall to $88,839, breaking its recent two-week structure.
Analyst: BTC Still on Track to Hit $100K
According to Nick Purin, founder of The Coin Bureau, Bitcoin still has a strong chance of reclaiming $100,000. However, the next move will likely depend on the outcome of the upcoming FOMC meeting.
“We have the FOMC meeting tomorrow. No rate cuts are expected, but Powell’s commentary could shake things up,” said Purin.
He added that low volume and a 50/50 long-to-short ratio suggest high volatility. However, strong buyer interest between $90K and $93K should prevent a deeper drop. Even a minor dip could trigger a rebound.
FOMC Outlook and May Seasonality Could Drive BTC
Purin also believes dovish tones from the Federal Reserve could spark a rally toward $100K. Even a hawkish stance might not shake Bitcoin, as institutional interest and spot BTC ETF inflows continue to support the price.
“There’s too much momentum—corporates are buying, and BTC’s correlation with stocks is fading,” Purin explained.
Historical trends also favor the bulls. Bitcoin has gained in 9 of the last 12 Mays, making this a potentially strong month for crypto.
What to Watch This Week
If momentum improves, BTC could retest $95,657, with potential moves toward $98,002 and finally the key $100,000 level. The market’s direction will likely hinge on how Bitcoin holds its support and how investors react to Powell’s statements.
