XRP

Ripple’s XRP token release in June broke from its usual schedule, signaling a strategic shift in how the company manages supply. On June 4, Ripple Labs unlocked 1 billion XRP, valued at around $2.2 billion, but unlike previous months, this drop didn’t happen on the first day.

Ripple Adjusts Monthly Escrow Pattern

Ripple typically releases tokens on the first day of each month. This regularity builds investor confidence and helps manage XRP’s circulating supply. However, since March 2024, these scheduled releases have started arriving later than usual—a trend that continued in May and again this June.

The company released the 1 billion XRP in three separate transactions, according to Whale Alert:

• 400 million XRP (~$882M) to wallet Ripple 26
• 500 million XRP (~$1.1B) to Ripple 27
• 100 million XRP (~$220M) back to Ripple 26

As a result, both Ripple wallets now hold 500 million XRP each.

670 Million XRP Locked Back in Escrow

Despite unlocking 1 billion tokens, Ripple also locked 670 million XRP back into escrow in two separate transactions:

• 470 million XRP
• 200 million XRP

This move returns about $1.46 billion to long-term hold status. The net increase in circulating supply now stands at 330 million XRP, raising the total available to approximately 58.76 billion.

Whale Activity and Coinbase Transfers Add to Buzz

Whale Alert also flagged nearly 54 million XRP moving into Coinbase. Initially, the source wallets were marked as unknown. However, blockchain analysis later confirmed that the tokens were transferred from Coinbase’s cold storage to active operational wallets.

These movements come amid rising optimism over a potential XRP ETF approval.

XRP ETF Approval Odds Surge

According to Coinspeaker, there’s now a 98% chance that the SEC will approve an XRP ETF by December 2025—a jump of 23% in just one month. The buzz surrounding ETF speculation may be contributing to market activity alongside the escrow news.

Meanwhile, the SEC has delayed its decision on Grayscale’s XRP ETF filing, instead launching a public comment period to gather feedback and analyze the case more deeply. This regulatory attention could have long-term implications for XRP’s market position.

XRP has been on a volatile ride lately. Although the altcoin recently climbed 22% in just two weeks, signs suggest that this rally may not last. Despite forming a potential bullish breakout pattern, analysts are cautious due to strong overvaluation signals.

NVT Ratio Signals Market Overheating

One of the clearest warning signs is XRP’s network value-to-transaction (NVT) ratio, which just surged to its highest level in five years. The NVT ratio compares a coin’s market cap to its transaction volume. When this ratio spikes, it typically means prices are rising faster than actual usage or demand.

Historically, such NVT peaks have signaled upcoming price corrections. The last time XRP’s NVT reached similar levels was back in January 2020—right before a major decline.

Momentum Indicators Show Weak Support

Even though XRP’s price is climbing, indicators like the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) suggest the momentum isn’t backed by strong buying activity. CMF has spiked recently, usually a bullish sign. But in this case, the volume of inflows doesn’t match the price surge, implying that speculation, not real investment, is driving the rally.

This disconnect makes the current price rise look unsustainable.

Breakout May Be Short-Lived

Currently, XRP is trading around $2.19 and appears to be breaking out of a three-month descending channel. However, overvaluation and weak volume raise concerns about whether this breakout can hold.

If the rally loses steam, XRP could fall back to $2.02—or even dip to $1.94. These levels act as critical support zones in case the price retreats.

What If XRP Defies the Odds?

There is still a bullish scenario on the table. If XRP can maintain its breakout and flip $2.40 and $2.56 into support, the bearish outlook could be invalidated. A successful hold above those levels might open the door for further gains.

But for now, caution is warranted. With technical signals flashing red and hype outweighing fundamentals, XRP’s current rally may be short-lived.

Over the past week, XRP’s price has remained range-bound, even as the broader crypto market tries to recover. But signs now point to a shift in sentiment—one that could push XRP higher.

📊 Futures Market Turns Bullish on XRP

A clear bullish tilt is emerging in the XRP futures market. The long/short ratio has climbed to 1.07, meaning there are now more long positions (bets on rising prices) than short ones.

This shift shows growing trader confidence. A long/short ratio above 1 typically signals positive sentiment, suggesting XRP could break out of its narrow trading range.

🔄 RSI Signals Growing Buying Pressure

Adding to the bullish outlook, XRP’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) has been climbing steadily. Now at 50.77, the RSI sits above the neutral zone and continues trending upward.

The RSI tracks whether an asset is overbought or oversold. A reading between 50 and 70 suggests growing demand without nearing extreme conditions. In this case, XRP is gaining momentum without yet triggering a correction.

🚀 XRP Eyes $2.29 as Bulls Challenge Resistance

Currently trading at $2.13, XRP is just 3% shy of its next resistance level at $2.18. If bulls can flip that resistance into support, a move toward $2.29 is possible.

However, if buying pressure weakens, the altcoin could fall back toward the $2.03 support or even dip to $1.99.

🧠 Final Thoughts: XRP’s Outlook This Week

Momentum indicators and trader behavior suggest that XRP is building strength. A breakout above $2.18 could validate the current bullish setup.

Still, much depends on short-term demand. If bulls stay in control, XRP may be heading for a new leg up.

XRP surged nearly 3% in the last 24 hours, trading around $2.02, following a major legal development. Ripple and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) have filed for a 60-day pause in their ongoing appeals, fueling optimism about a possible settlement.

This joint request, submitted to the court, hints at behind-the-scenes progress toward resolving the long-standing legal battle that began in 2020. The lawsuit has centered on whether XRP qualifies as an unregistered security.

Ripple and SEC Seek a Settlement

In their joint motion, Ripple and the SEC asked to temporarily halt both the appeal and cross-appeal proceedings. According to the filing, the pause would allow time to finalize a potential agreement-in-principle, subject to the SEC’s approval.

This move could mark the beginning of the end for one of crypto’s most significant legal showdowns.

Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse recently shared that the SEC had already withdrawn its appeal concerning XRP’s programmatic sales, which were ruled not to be securities. Ripple also dropped its own cross-appeal, showing both sides are ready to move forward.

The political shift in Washington, especially after President Trump’s return, seems to be influencing the SEC’s softer stance on crypto enforcement. In fact, the agency has dropped lawsuits against Coinbase and Kraken in recent months.

Technical Outlook: XRP Gears Up for a Breakout

From a technical angle, XRP is trading just below the 20-day EMA at $2.10—an important resistance zone. A strong move above this level could spark a new wave of buying.

Meanwhile, Bollinger Bands are narrowing, indicating a potential breakout. The upper band sits at $2.50 and the lower at $1.77. This kind of volatility compression often leads to sharp price moves.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 44.61, trending upward. If it climbs above 50, we may see growing bullish sentiment.