Bitcoin short squeeze poised as BTC dropped to $58,000 on Thursday. The asset started the U.S. session with a fast 5% plunge to its weakest level since 2024.

Consequently, the largest cryptocurrency has since bounced to $59,440, down 2.51% over the last 24hrs, ETH down 5.5% on over the 24hrs. Solana posted similar declines.

Why Bitcoin short squeeze poised to trigger

The move came as memory chip maker Micron soared following strong earnings Wednesday evening. Nevertheless, much of the rest of mega‑cap tech fell, leaving the Nasdaq down 0.4%.

Markets continue to digest not only the capital demands of the AI boom but the Fed’s surprisingly hawkish turn last week under new Chairman Kevin Warsh. Specifically, policymakers signaled that their next move is almost surely going to be a rate hike rather than a rate cut. Furthermore, that hike could come far sooner than markets had previously expected.

Derivatives data points to short squeeze

While bitcoin remains in a sharp downtrend dating back to October, derivatives data points toward some short‑term relief. Specifically, the liquidation heatmap shows a bulk of clustered liquidation risk above current prices, not below. Therefore, a move to the downside is unlikely to amplify through forced selling. Conversely, the real danger is for those positioned short.

Open interest has risen roughly 0.28% over the past 24 hours, even as price fell by around 3%. This signals that traders are not closing their shorts. Instead, they are doubling down and betting on a breach of the $58,000 level of support. Additionally, funding rates are negative, another sign that the market is paying a premium for downside exposure.

Spot market depth reinforces bullish skew

Spot market depth reinforces strength beneath a delicate surface. Specifically, CoinGlass data shows a total of 6,900 BTC ($409 million) sitting in bids on the order book between the current price and $50,000. Meanwhile, there are just 1,570 BTC ($93million) in resting sell orders between the current price and $70,000. Therefore, this creates a bullish skew in terms of supply.

Typically, in scenarios like this, when a clearly overcrowded trade appears, astute traders and market makers will target that weakness. Consequently, they will move the price in the other direction. This could lead to those in shorts closing their positions to avoid paying funding and prevent liquidation.

Bitcoin options expiry triggered a $2.13 billion event on June 19. Both Bitcoin and Ethereum traded below their max pain levels during the session.

The expiry covered 31,000 BTC options with a put‑call ratio of 0.78 and a notional value of $1.9 billion. Meanwhile, Ethereum had 138,000 options expire, with a put‑call ratio of 1.03 and a notional value of $230 million.

Specifically, ETH’s max pain level stood at $1,725, while BTC′s max pain level stood at $65,000.

Why Bitcoin options expiry matters for traders

Bitcoin traded near $62,500 during the session. That is below the level where many options would expire with the least value to buyers. Similarly, Ethereum traded near $1,690, also below its max pain area.

Consequently, this expiry shows that traders remain cautious while both assets trade below their pain points.

Bitcoin momentum fades near key support

Bitcoin briefly rebounded toward $67,000 earlier this week. However, the move lost strength. Sellers pushed the asset below $63,000 before expiry, keeping attention on the $60,000 to $63,000 range.

As previously reported, last week’s options expiry also placed the $60,000 to $62,000 Bitcoin area in focus. GreeksLive had said downside exposure was concentrated in that region.

The same level remains important this week. Specifically, GreeksLive said the $60,000 strike acts as a “critical threshold.” The firm added that a “sustained breach” below that level could turn dealer hedging into a force that supports a faster move lower.

ETF flows and Strategy concerns weigh on sentiment

The market has also struggled to absorb pressure from institutional selling. For example, Strategy drew attention after a small Bitcoin sale earlier this month shook confidence among some traders.

Nevertheless, analysts pushed back against claims that Strategy alone caused Bitcoin’s drop. ETF outflows and whale selling were seen as larger forces behind the decline.

Still, the Strategy debate has added pressure to a market already dealing with weaker liquidity and falling prices. Therefore, traders have become more cautious as Bitcoin trades closer to downside strikes than upside call levels.

ETF demand has also cooled during the recent pullback. This matters because spot Bitcoin ETFs have been one of the main sources of institutional demand since their launch.

Traders watch quarterly settlement

This week’s expiry was smaller than last week’s. Nevertheless, next week brings the quarterly settlement. About 15% of options positions are set to expire, making June 26 a key date for derivatives traders.

Open interest remains large near the $80,000 strike. Meanwhile, bearish exposure still sits near $60,000. This split shows a market caught between longer‑term upside bets and short‑term downside protection.

Laevitas said a “week of grinding calm” had weakened the front end of Bitcoin volatility. Therefore, traders have not priced in a large near‑term move, even as quarterly expiry approaches.

Skew remains negative, showing that traders still pay more attention to downside protection. If Bitcoin holds above $60,000, volatility could remain contained. Conversely, a break below that level may bring faster hedging flows and another test of lower support.

Ethereum key levels

For Ethereum, the $1,700 area remains the near‑term line to watch. ETH traded below its $1,725 max pain level. Therefore, a failure to reclaim that area could keep pressure on the $1,650 to $1,600 range.

The options expiry did not change the wider market trend by itself. It did, however, show that traders remain cautious while BTC and ETH trade below their pain points before a larger quarterly settlement.

Bitcoin drops below $65K on Wednesday. The asset extended losses amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and investor uncertainty ahead of the Fed rate decision.

Almost $216 million in longs were liquidated from top crypto assets in the last 24hours. Consequently, the Crypto Market Fear & Greed Index dipped to 22 after a recent rebound from 9 (extreme fear).

Why Bitcoin drops below $65K today

Middle East tensions spiked as Iran’s military issued fresh warnings against Israel. Specifically, they threatened a “harsh response” if Israeli attacks in southern Lebanon do not cease. Therefore, oil prices surged, triggering a drop in Bitcoin below the psychological $65K level.

Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya central command accused Israel of violating a recent ceasefire agreement. This followed strikes that killed four people in Lebanon. Notably, these threats come despite an earlier US-Iran peace agreement to open the Strait of Hormuz.

Iranian officials have reiterated warnings of strong retaliation, including potential strikes on Israeli targets. Meanwhile, they criticized ongoing Israeli operations. The latest warning added weight as the agreement enables Iran to tap into a total of $100 billion in frozen funds and the $300 billion reconstruction fund.

Consequently, market participants are closely monitoring the situation. Any further escalation could increase volatility and renew inflationary pressure risks.

Bitcoin falls ahead of Fed rate decision and retail sales data

Bitcoin fell today as traders braced for the release of May U.S. retail sales data and the FOMC meeting outcome. While the Fed is expected to hold rates steady in the 3.50%-3.75% range, market conditions could worsen if new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh adopts a hawkish tone.

The expected 0.5% month-over-month rise in U.S. retail sales would cause the Federal Reserve to maintain or even hike interest rates. This is due to resilient consumer spending despite higher energy prices amid Middle East tensions.

At press time, Bitcoin trades near $64,914, down more than 2.14%.

In addition, CoinGlass data showed massive selling in the derivatives market across Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, and other leading altcoins. Specifically, total BTC futures open interest dropped 3.30% to $48.13 billion in the last 24 hours. The 4‑hour BTC futures OI fell 1.18% on CME and 1.54% on Binance.

Analyst warns of further downside

Analyst Ted Pillows noted that Bitcoin appears to be repeating the exact February 2026 pattern. He predicts that de‑risking amid the Fed rate decision could cause a crash to $62K levels if the pattern repeats. Notably, the Bank of Japan hiked interest rates to a 31‑year high of 1%. Therefore, this risks unwinding of carry trades if the yen strengthens.

Even though temporary seller exhaustion is clear, popular analyst Rekt Capital said: “The buy‑side volume to take advantage of that hasn’t been strong at all.” Consequently, BTC continues to struggle with February lows, with $65.7K as key resistance to break for a rebound.

Bitcoin reclaims $65000 after oil prices plunged to a two‑month low. This followed a reported US‑Iran peace agreement that eased concerns over disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.

According to CoinmarketCap data, Bitcoin climbed to an intraday high of roughly  $65,995 on June 15. Consequently, it extended its rebound from the June 6 low near $60,000. The move represents a gain of about 10%. Nevertheless, Bitcoin remains roughly 21% below the local peak near $82,800 reached in May before the early‑June selloff.

Why Bitcoin reclaims $65000 today

Bitcoin’s rebound came as risk assets rallied across global markets. Specifically, reports indicated that Washington and Tehran had reached an agreement to end hostilities and restore oil shipments through the Persian Gulf . Pakistan PM has announced on X that they have reached a Peace Deal.

Crude oil fell more than 5% to around $80 per barrel. Meanwhile, equity markets surged across Asia. For example, Japan’s Nikkei 225 jumped 5.5%, South Korea’s Kospi gained as much as 5.7%, and Taiwan’s Taiex rose 2.7%. Additionally, U.S. stock futures advanced, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures climbing about 1% and 1.8%, respectively.

The drop in energy prices has reduced one of the largest macro risks hanging over financial markets in recent months. A prolonged blockage of the Strait of Hormuz had removed millions of barrels of oil from global supply chains. Therefore, it fueled inflation concerns and raised questions about how aggressively the Federal Reserve might need to respond.

Bitcoin’s advance has also arrived as derivatives traders return to the market. For instance, CoinGlass data showed Bitcoin open interest rising to roughly $49.56 billion. Moreover, the weighted funding rate remained slightly positive at 0.0029%. This combination suggests traders are adding exposure without the excessive leverage often seen near local tops.

Bitcoin faces major resistance between $67.5K and $75K

Technically, Bitcoin has broken above the $64,500 resistance area highlighted by several market analysts over the weekend. Specifically, the four‑hour chart shows BTC confirming a breakout from an ascending triangle. This is a bullish continuation pattern characterized by rising lows pressing against a horizontal resistance zone. Additionally, the move has pushed Bitcoin back above its 20‑period and 50‑period moving averages.

The next major resistance sits near $67,500. That level coincides with a large liquidation cluster visible on CoinGlass’ three‑day heatmap.

According to analyst Kamile Uray, Bitcoin’s outlook remains constructive as long as the recent breakout holds.

“BTC broke through the $64,500 resistance with volume. As long as it holds the $63,707 bottom, the upward movement can continue.”

Uray identified  $67,500 as the first major hurdle. Therefore, a success full break above that level could open a path toward the $74,000 ‑ $75,000 region. That aligns with the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level on the daily chart.

Beyond that, the analyst pointed to $82,885 as the level that would need to giveway before a move toward $98,000 becomes realistic.

Technical indicators improve

The daily chart shows Bitcoin pushing into a major resistance area between $65,500 and $67,500. It has now reclaimed the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level near  $64,220. A decisive close above that zone would strengthen the case for a move toward the $74,000 ‑ $75,000 region.

Furthermore, the daily RSI has climbed back above 40 from oversold territory. Meanwhile, the MACD histogram has crossed into positive territory for the first time in weeks.

Liquidation data highlights another important factor. CoinGlass heatmaps show dense short liquidation pockets concentrated between $67,000 and $68,500. Therefore, if Bitcoin reaches those levels, forced short covering could accelerate the rally and create additional upside momentum.

Weak ETF demand keeps downside risks in play

Despite the rebound, institutional participation remains a concern. Specifically, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded only two days of net inflows since May 15. Meanwhile, they have accumulated roughly $5 billion in net outflows during the same period.

Last year, these funds were a major catalyst for Bitcoin, helping drive the asset to an all‑time high above $126,000 in October 2025. Consequently, continued weakness in ETF demand would remove one of the strongest sources of institutional buying that supported the previous bull run.

Some traders remain skeptical that the latest rally represents the start of a sustained recovery. For example, market analyst CryptoBullet argued that Bitcoin could still face another leg lower. He believes the present recovery is merely a “small dead cat bounce.”

In technical analysis, a dead cat bounce refers to a temporary recovery during a broader downtrend, where prices rebound sharply before resuming their decline.

Key levels to watch

The bearish case gains traction if Bitcoin loses the breakout zone between $63,700 and $64,500. Heatmap data shows significant liquidity resting near $63,000. A deeper pullback could expose the psychologically important $60,000 level.

Uray identified $60,000 as the key level that bulls must defend. Losing it could open the door to a decline toward the $55,000 ‑ $50,000 range.