Grayscale has officially filed with the SEC to convert its Grayscale Solana Trust (GSOL) into a spot Solana ETF listed on NYSE Arca. While the move shows growing institutional interest in Solana, the market remains cautious about its approval timeline.
Despite the optimism behind the filing, prediction markets suggest approval in Q2 2025 is unlikely.
Market Sentiment Remains Low for Q2 Approval
According to Polymarket, chances of a Solana ETF approval by Q2 2025 sit at just 23%. Meanwhile, broader odds for any 2025 approval have dropped to 83%, down from 92% earlier this year.
The dip reflects ongoing regulatory delays. In March, the SEC extended its review timelines for multiple ETF proposals tied to Solana, XRP, and other altcoins. Analysts believe decisions may be postponed until a permanent SEC chair is in place.
Currently, Mark Uyeda serves as interim chair. Trump’s nominee, Paul Atkins, recently appeared before the Senate, but his ties to crypto businesses raised fresh concerns.
Grayscale Excludes Staking to Ease SEC Concerns
To boost its chances, Grayscale’s filing excludes staking—a key sticking point in past ETF proposals. The SEC has repeatedly objected to staking features, suggesting they may fall under securities regulations.
This strategy mirrors the path taken by Ethereum ETF filers like Fidelity, Ark Invest, and 21Shares, who also removed staking to align with SEC expectations under former chair Gary Gensler.
Solana’s Strength Keeps It in the ETF Conversation
Despite the regulatory challenges, Solana remains a top candidate for future ETF approval. It benefits from a growing U.S. futures market and relatively positive sentiment in legal circles compared to some other altcoins.
With Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs already approved, many firms are racing to expand into altcoin ETFs. These products aim to give retail and institutional investors easy access to crypto via traditional brokerage accounts, without managing private keys or wallets.
