XRP price bounce or drop is the key question on every trader’s mind. Friday’s selloff pushed XRP deeper into the red, completing a 22% retrace over the past 30 days.
Consequently, the token fell below $1.10 for the first time since November 2024. Many now ask: could XRP reach the $1 mark again soon, or is a fall below this level now on the cards?
Could XRP drop 40% toward $0.70?
Many analysts flags that the broader technical picture is now fully bearish across multiple timeframes. Specifically, XRP is trading below its 20, 50, 100, and 200‑day moving averages. This configuration typically signals that sellers remain in control no matter which chart window investors examine.
Furthermore, there is not much support once XRP trades at 1.09.Around1.05, buyers have tended to show interest. Then $1 is the next major psychological floor where demand often appears simply because it is a round number.
Even more concerning, some chart analysts believe the cryptocurrency could drop as much as another 40% from current levels if the risk‑off trend continues. That would place the token around $0.70.
On‑chain data tells a different story
Nevertheless, on‑chain data paints a more constructive picture. For example, the number of XRP wallets holding at least 10,000 tokens hit a record 332,230 in May. Moreover, that group has continued to grow through each drawdown of 2026.
In addition, wallets holding 1 million or more XRP added a net 42 new addresses since January. That marks the first increase in millionaire wallets since September 2025.
Whale behavior also appears to be tightening around supply. Specifically, whales holding 10 million or more XRP control 45.83 billion tokens. That represents 68.5% of the circulating supply, the highest concentration since May 2018.
Meanwhile, whale outflow dominance on Binance recently reached 91.4%, the highest reading since 2024. And when Binance outflow dominance last hit similar levels in October 2024, XRP later rallied from about $0.50 to above $3 in the months that followed.
Monthly RSI hits rare oversold reset
There is also a longer‑cycle technical signal that does not show up often. Specifically, XRP’s monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen into the oversold reset zone for only the fourth time in 13 years.
Each of the earlier RSI resets eventually preceded a major reversal in XRP’s direction.
Two hope beacons in the downtrend
While whales and long‑cycle chart signals may support a future rebound, the near‑term catalyst for many is policy. Analysts points to the CLARITY Act floor vote as a potential turning point for XRP’s outlook for the rest of the year.
The bill cleared the Senate Banking Committee on May 14. Then, it was placed on the Senate Legislative Calendar on June 1. That puts it at the fifth stage out of nine needed before it can become law. The full Senate floor vote is the next major step.
If the CLARITY Act clears and the macro environment stabilizes, Standard Chartered forecasts XRP could reach $2.80. Moreover, a bullish range could stretch as high as $8.
However, if the bill stalls before recess and slips into a later timeline (such as 2030 or beyond), the bank’s outlook suggests prices could retreat toward $0.53.
Will XRP drop below $1?
In our view is more conditional than definitive. He suggests the altcoin could likely test $1 before this leg of the sell‑off ends. Whether the level breaks depends on two key factors.
First, can Bitcoin reclaim and consolidate above $60,000? If BTC slides into the $55,000 zone, XRP would likely follow regardless of its own fundamentals.
Second, will the CLARITY Act receive a Senate floor vote before the August recess? If that vote happens and the bill clears, the upside could become attractive enough for institutional money to re‑engage. Consequently, a rally could emerge from whatever low XRP marks during the downturn.
