Toncoin has jumped 45% from its monthly low, reaching $3.6240—its highest level since February 24. The surge follows Pavel Durov’s release from France, alongside broader crypto market gains.
However, weak on-chain metrics raise concerns that this rally might not last.
Why Did Toncoin Price Surge?
Pavel Durov’s Legal Troubles
Toncoin’s price boost coincides with news that French authorities returned Pavel Durov’s passport, allowing him to leave the country.
Durov was arrested in 2024 in France over allegations including facilitating illegal transactions, money laundering, and refusal to cooperate with authorities. His detention sparked strong reactions from the crypto community, fueling speculation around Toncoin.
Toncoin’s On-Chain Weakness
Despite the price spike, Toncoin’s network activity has declined:
- Inflation rose to 0.40% (from 0.33% in October).
- Daily transactions plunged to 2.15M, down from 20M in September 2023.
- Active wallet numbers continue to decline.
- DeFi total value locked (TVL) dropped to $180M, down from $800M.
Additionally, STON.fi, TON’s largest DEX, processed just $7.1M in transactions over 24 hours, showing weak DeFi participation.
One key reason for this decline is the collapse of TON-based meme tokens like Hamster Kombat, Catizen, and Tapswap, which wiped out billions in value.
Will Toncoin’s Rally Hold?
Profit-Taking Could Push Toncoin Lower
Toncoin’s price rally may be short-lived, as investors could sell the news of Durov’s release. Similar patterns have played out before—like Cardano’s post-Trump stockpile pump, which ended in double-digit losses days later.
Technical Analysis Signals a Possible Drop
Toncoin’s daily chart shows a bounce from $2.3650 to $3.50, where it hit resistance at the 50-day moving average.
It also encountered resistance at the Murrey Math Lines’ weak stop-and-reverse level, signaling a potential reversal. If selling pressure increases, Toncoin could drop below $3 as the hype fades.
Final Thoughts
While Toncoin’s 45% surge is impressive, weak on-chain fundamentals and potential profit-taking could trigger a pullback. Investors should watch for support at $3.00 and broader market sentiment shifts.
