Experienced traders are on the lookout for increased activity in spot and perpetual futures trading volumes, coupled with negative funding rates, as indicators of market capitulation and potential price bottoms.
However, the current state of the bitcoin market paints a different picture. Despite the introduction of spot ETFs on January 11, Bitcoin ($BTC) has seen more than 20% decline to $38k . Rather than displaying signs of capitulation, the options market is reflecting persistent concerns about a prolonged downward movement.
Capitulation, defined as a surrender point, occurs when traders abandon their bullish positions in both spot and perpetual futures markets. This results in a substantial surge in volumes during a declining market. The unwinding of bullish perpetual futures leads to negative basis or sub-zero funding rates, indicating a situation where perpetuals trade at a discount to the underlying asset’s price, signaling seller dominance. This mass exit of short-term traders typically represents a peak in bearish sentiment and sets the stage for a market bottom and a potential upward move.
To confirm the local bottom, traders are looking for high-volume prints accompanied by a negative perps basis. However, current data suggests that the bitcoin market has not yet shown signs of capitulation. While trading volumes in bitcoin perpetual and spot markets have increased, they still remain below recent highs. Funding rates, according to Coinglass, also remain positive, indicating a prevailing bullish bias.
In addition to actual capitulation, emotional capitulation is also a key factor in identifying market bottoms. Extreme fear of holding assets and a preference for cash typically characterize market bottoms. Savvy traders monitor sentiment indicators like Alternative.me’s Crypto Fear & Greed index, which currently hovers around 50, indicating a neutral sentiment. A reading below 20 signals extreme fear, historically coinciding with peak selling.
Another crucial aspect is examining changes in options pricing, which have proven to be reliable indicators of trend exhaustion and shifts in the past. The seven- and 30-day call-put skews, measuring the pricing for calls relative to puts, dropped below zero before the ETFs were launched, hinting at a potential post-launch price correction. These metrics continue to be negative, suggesting concerns about a sustained price decline, while the 60-day gauge indicates a neutral market sentiment.
