A key momentum indicator for Bitcoin has flipped bullish for the first time since April, signaling renewed optimism for a breakout above $70,000. Similar bullish signals have preceded major rallies, such as those in late 2023 and late 2022, which marked the end of significant downtrends.
Bitcoin’s MACD Indicator Turns Bullish
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram, a popular technical analysis tool, has flipped positive on the weekly chart. This marks the first time since April that Bitcoin’s MACD has shown upward momentum, according to TradingView. A positive MACD suggests increased buying pressure and signals a potential bullish resolution to Bitcoin’s recent trading range between $50,000 and $70,000.
Bitcoin’s price has already surged nearly 30% since hitting lows of under $53,000 in early September. On Monday, it reached $69,500 during Asian trading hours, with the MACD’s bullish flip adding confidence that Bitcoin may finally break through the $70,000 resistance level.
Factors Driving Bitcoin’s Bullish Outlook
Several macro factors support this positive outlook. The U.S. Federal Reserve’s potential rate cuts, the growing probability of a pro-crypto Republican candidate, Donald Trump, winning the November 5 U.S. election, and the weakening Japanese yen all provide a favorable backdrop for Bitcoin’s growth. Analysts expect that these factors could drive Bitcoin toward $100,000 by the end of the year.
MACD’s Historical Significance
The MACD tracks the difference between Bitcoin’s average price over the past 12 and 26 weeks. When the MACD line crosses above the signal line, plotted as a histogram, it typically marks a shift in momentum. In late 2022, a similar bullish MACD crossover marked the end of the bear market, pushing Bitcoin above $30,000. By March 2023, Bitcoin reached an all-time high of over $73,000, validating the signal’s importance.
With Bitcoin nearing the $70,000 mark again, this MACD bullish flip could be the catalyst for another significant rally.