Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced relatively calm weekends throughout its bull run since last October. However, recent data suggests this trend may shift, with potential volatility expected soon.

Implied Volatility Points to Bitcoin Price Swings
According to Deribit options data tracked by Arbelos Markets, Bitcoin’s “implied volatility term structure” indicates that significant price fluctuations may occur on Saturday, October 5. This term structure represents implied volatilities (IV) for options with different expiration dates and is typically upward-sloping.

However, the current curve shows a sharp increase for options expiring on October 5, with an annualized IV of 51.44%. This is notably higher than options expiring on surrounding dates, including October 6, October 11, and October 25.

Joshua Lim, co-founder of Arbelos Markets, noted that traders are pricing in larger price movements due to upcoming events, including Friday’s nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report and rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Economic Data in Focus
On Friday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the NFP report, which is expected to show that 140,000 jobs were added in September. The jobless rate is forecast to remain steady at 4.2%, with wages growing at an annual rate of 3.8%.
Economic analysts, including ING, suggest that the data could trigger hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) actions, possibly leading to further rate cuts. Markets currently expect another 50 basis point cut by year-end, which could strengthen the U.S. dollar.
A stronger dollar often puts pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin, as well as traditional safe-haven assets like gold.
Geopolitical Tensions Add to Market Uncertainty
The volatile geopolitical situation in the Middle East also adds risk to the market. On October 1, Iran launched over 180 ballistic missiles at Israel, significantly escalating tensions. Investors now expect Israel to retaliate, which could lead to broader market risks and fuel volatility across traditional and crypto markets.
With traditional markets closed over the weekend, Bitcoin traders may express their reactions through digital assets, leading to heightened market activity.