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Several altcoins, including Polkadot (DOT), have recently seen their gains evaporate due to rising geopolitical tensions. Over the past three days, DOT’s price fell by over 14%, dropping to $4.04. In times of market turbulence like this, it’s essential to evaluate key fundamentals and sentiment among traders.

Polkadot On-Chain Metrics: User Growth and Activity

Despite the price drop, Polkadot’s on-chain activity offers some positive signs. One crucial metric is the number of daily active users and new accounts. Since May of last year, the number of new accounts has remained steady, while active users have increased by more than 25%. This indicates that more people are using the network regularly.

Additionally, the amount of DOT transferred daily has also surged, showing that larger volumes are moving through the Polkadot ecosystem. This heightened activity could be a positive indicator for the network’s future growth.

Is Polkadot Ready for a Breakout?

According to several market analyses, DOT may be nearing the end of its accumulation phase. The token is reportedly approaching a long-standing falling wedge pattern, a bullish technical indicator that could signal an upcoming breakout.

$DOT's Big Breakout is Coming! 💹$DOT is nearing the end of its accumulation phase and ready to break out of a long-standing falling wedge pattern! 📈

We've already seen major moves from large caps recently, and $DOT looks primed to follow suit. It's only a matter of time… pic.twitter.com/nAWWrvjIoZ

— Crypto Winkle (@CryptoWinkle) October 3, 2024

Analysts have set key resistance levels at $11.83, $18.41, $26.30, and $37.53, which DOT could target once it breaks out of this phase. Market observers like “Lucky” also see this trend, predicting that DOT could soon “take off” as it exits its accumulation phase.

Could Polkadot Surge to $200 by 2025?

In a more bullish scenario, TradingShot, an investment firm, has drawn comparisons between Polkadot’s price cycle and Ethereum Classic’s (ETC) 2018-2021 trajectory. Both assets display nearly identical RSI sequences on a one-week chart, suggesting Polkadot may be following a similar pattern.

Is #Polkadot following ETC's 2018 – 2021 Cycle?

That's not impossible if we observe this chart as the similarities between the two Cycles are strong.

If that's the case, Dot could be starting any week now a highly aggressive parabolic rally towards the 1.5 Fib extension, which… pic.twitter.com/sRoAMaJ9MA

— TradingShot (@TradingShot) October 2, 2024

If this pattern holds, Polkadot could potentially rally toward the 1.5 Fibonacci extension, which would place its price around $200 by the end of 2025. While this prediction may seem extreme, it highlights the long-term potential some see in DOT based on historic market behavior.