Bitcoin Options Market Reflects Bullish Sentiment: Analysts Eye $100K Target

The number of active bitcoin call contracts surpasses puts by a significant margin, signaling a bullish sentiment in the market.

Bitcoin’s recent upward momentum has options traders pondering the potential for the cryptocurrency to hit the $100,000 mark sometime this year. Following Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s indication last Wednesday that there won’t be additional tightening or rate hikes, Bitcoin has surged by over 12% to $63,470. The disappointing U.S. nonfarm payrolls data on Friday supported Powell’s stance, further boosting BTC’s recovery.

Consequently, there’s been a noticeable uptick in demand for bitcoin call options on platforms like Deribit and over-the-counter networks. These options are specifically targeting a surge to new highs, possibly surpassing $75,000 and even reaching $100,000.

According to QCP Capital, there’s been bullish momentum in volatility and rates following the rebound from Friday, with BTC risk reversals turning positive and increased demand for BTC September expiry $75,000 and $100,000 calls. Call options grant the right to buy the underlying asset at a predetermined price on or before a specific date, indicating a bullish outlook from the buyer.

Paradigm, an OTC institutional cryptocurrency trading network, observed a similar trend, noting increased demand for out-of-the-money (OTM) calls, which are options with strikes well above BTC’s current market rate.

Deribit data reveals that traders have committed over $688 million to the $100,000 strike call options across various maturities, marking the highest notional open interest among all options listed on the exchange.

Currently, there are more than 150,000 active call option contracts worth $9.5 billion on Deribit, exceeding the open interest in put options by more than two times, indicating bullish market sentiments. Notional open interest refers to the dollar value locked in active contracts.

Both fundamental and technical analysts are united in their belief that Bitcoin’s trajectory favors further upside. Factors such as the U.S. election cycle and ongoing deficit spending support this sentiment.

Swissblock Insights anticipates a defensive stance for the dollar index (DXY) unless there’s a challenge to Powell’s stance, which could be favorable for risk assets like cryptocurrencies.

Elliot wave analysis by John Glover suggests that Bitcoin could potentially rise to $92,000. The Elliot wave theory, introduced by Ralph Nelson Elliott, predicts asset price movements by identifying repetitive wave patterns, where trends unfold in five waves, with 1, 3, and 5 representing the primary trend, and 2 and 4 showing temporary retracements.


Disclaimer: Not Investment Advice

it’s crucial to understand that the information provided here is not to be construed as investment advice. The crypto market is dynamic and highly speculative, and decisions should be made based on thorough personal research and consideration of individual risk tolerance. Always consult with financial professionals and conduct your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. The intention of this exploration is to present insights and trends, not to provide specific investment recommendations.

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