Investors in the market are buzzing about the emergence of a significant event known as the “golden cross” on the weekly price chart of bitcoin (BTC). This term refers to a positive shift in asset prices. Notably, the 50-week simple moving average (SMA) for bitcoin has crossed above the 200-week SMA for the first time ever, confirming the occurrence of the golden cross. It’s interesting to note that the concepts of the golden cross and its counterpart, the “death cross,” originated in Japan, as detailed in certain technical analysis textbooks.
Many traders view these crossovers as indicators that provide insight into future market trends. In this case, the golden cross is seen as a signal for a potential long-term bull market. However, some skepticism surrounds this bullish interpretation. Crossovers are often considered lagging indicators because they rely on historical data, representing past market events. The recent golden cross on the weekly chart, for instance, is a consequence of bitcoin’s impressive 70% rally to $42,700 within a span of four months.
Experienced traders caution that crossovers might coincide with trend exhaustion, suggesting that they are not foolproof signals. As an example, the confirmation of a weekly death cross in early 2023 marked the bottom of the bear market. When it comes to bitcoin’s daily chart, both golden and death crossovers have a mixed track record in accurately predicting bullish and bearish trends.
Despite the initial excitement surrounding bitcoin’s rally, it has hit a roadblock, with the cryptocurrency trading 10% lower than its recent highs near $49,000. This decline followed the launch of 11 spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the U.S. last Thursday. Observers attribute the slowdown in bullish momentum to early ETF flows not meeting the exceptionally high market expectations. According to Greg Cipolaro, the Global Head of Research at NYDIG, the net flow of funds for the ETFs has been $965 million (including seed funds), indicating a strong start. However, the spot price has decreased from the initial launch-driven enthusiasm, as investors had set unrealistically high launch expectations.
