Bitcoin (BTC) continues to navigate through turbulent waters, exhibiting resilience yet remaining below its all-time high. Currently trading around $65,000, Bitcoin’s price movement is influenced by a mix of technical indicators and macroeconomic factors.
Technical Analysis Highlights
Bitcoin’s 50-day simple moving average, a crucial support level, is positioned at $64,870. A drop below this level could signal further declines. Additionally, the 10-day momentum indicator, which compares the current price to the price from 10 days ago, has turned negative, indicating renewed downward pressure. Traders use this momentum indicator to confirm ongoing trends and spot potential reversals.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram has also turned negative, utilizing the 26-day and 12-day exponential moving averages to spot market direction changes. A crossover below zero in the MACD histogram typically signals a bearish trend.
Macroeconomic Influences
Rising U.S. Treasury yields are significantly impacting Bitcoin and other risk assets. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has risen by 24 basis points to 4.55% in the past two weeks, driven by persistent U.S. debt concerns and increased bond supply. Analysts suggest that a rise above 4.7% could inject volatility into stock markets, potentially affecting Bitcoin.
Furthermore, the two-year Treasury yield is nearing 5%, prompting investors to consider safer government bonds over cryptocurrencies. Peter Oppenheimer of Goldman Sachs noted that increasing yields could weigh heavily on all asset classes.
Key Economic Data to Watch
Traders are also focusing on the upcoming personal-consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure. Scheduled for release on Friday, this data will provide insights into the direction of interest rates. A higher-than-expected increase in the core PCE figure could diminish the case for interest-rate cuts, potentially leading to higher bond yields and additional pressure on Bitcoin.
Conclusion
While Bitcoin remains strong, it faces challenges from both technical indicators and macroeconomic factors suggesting a bearish trend. Key support at $64,870 and upcoming PCE data will be critical for traders and investors to watch for further direction
