An executive at one of the largest bitcoin mining companies finds it intriguing that there isn’t a futures market centered around rare and highly valuable satoshis. He suggests that these ultra-rare sats could fetch “millions” from collectors.
Adam Swick, the chief growth officer at Marathon Digital Holdings, discussed the competition to mine the first satoshi after bitcoin’s upcoming halving with CoinDesk.
Since the launch of Bitcoin Ordinals last year, individual satoshis can now be uniquely numbered and traded like collectibles, akin to non-fungible tokens (NFTs), instead of being viewed as anonymous fractions of bitcoin.
The first satoshi following a bitcoin halving, a relatively rare event, could be worth significantly more than its nominal value. According to Ordiscan founder ‘Tristan,’ it could be valued at around $1 million.
Satoshis can now be graded based on a rarity scale devised by Ordinals creator Casey Rodarmor. Sats are ranked from ‘uncommon’ – such as a block’s first satoshi – to ‘mythic’ – the first-ever bitcoin satoshi presumed to be in Satoshi’s wallet.
Although not quite at the ‘mythic’ level, the first sat mined after a halving would likely be highly sought after, especially among wealthy collectors on Ordinals platforms.
Swick speculates, “If we consider the satoshi produced in an event that occurs every two weeks, versus one produced only every four years, its value could be in the millions.”
“We have thousands of these uncommon sats – like the first satoshi of every block – and we’ve often debated whether to sell or hold them,” he added.
Swick also proposed the concept of a futures market where miners with a significant share of global hash rate could be paid upfront for rare sats they might uncover.
For instance, Marathon, with a 5% global hash rate share, could be paid in advance by an Ordinals collector for a percentage of what they estimate an ‘epic’ sat would be worth. Marathon would commit to delivering it if mined.
“It could be fascinating if someone approached publicly-listed mining firms, pre-paying them for the epic sat, and then having a probability of winning it,” Swick suggested.
“It’s surprising that a futures market like this hasn’t emerged yet,” he concluded.
