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Bitcoin’s price is holding steady, currently supported between $64,000 and $63,000. If this level fails, strong support is found at $61,000. After this pullback, Bitcoin may resume its upward rally.

Bitcoin Taking a Breather

Bitcoin is experiencing a minor pullback after a recent surge. The price rallied 24%, jumping nearly $13,000 from a low of $53,400. This breather allows indicators to reset before potentially continuing its rally.

Tail Winds in Evidence

Tailwinds are still strong. Spot Bitcoin ETFs maintain their buying spree, and unconfirmed rumors suggest that Donald Trump may announce a US Bitcoin strategic reserve at the 2024 Nashville Bitcoin Conference.

Where Will $BTC Bounce?

In the daily timeframe, Bitcoin’s first support level just under $64,000 is holding. A healthier correction might see it dip to the next big support at $61,000, aligning with the 0.382 Fibonacci level. A bounce from here would be very bullish. Alternatively, the bounce could occur at the 0.236 Fibonacci level, around $63,133, a level Bitcoin has nearly touched.

5 Months of Price Structure

Zooming out to the monthly timeframe, Bitcoin has stayed above the crucial $61,000 support for five consecutive months. This level marks the highest monthly candle tops of the 2021 bull market, creating a strong price structure. The July monthly candle shows significant buying interest, with a close at or above the bull flag top trend line potentially signaling the next major surge towards $100,000.

In spite of the ongoing fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) in the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin price analysis indicates a continued rally. A potential weekly stochastic RSI cross up could be confirmed next week, leading to increased momentum and pushing Bitcoin to new highs.

Is This a Relief Rally?

Many analysts label this surge as a relief rally, expecting Bitcoin to eventually decline, signaling the start of the next bear market. However, the current price action suggests otherwise.

Peter Brandt’s Perspective

Renowned trader Peter Brandt acknowledges Bitcoin’s impressive price surge but points out a pattern of lower highs and lower lows. Despite the hype, this pattern usually signifies the formation of a bull flag. However, Brandt cites “Edwards, Magee, Schabacker,” stating that a bull flag lasting more than a couple of months should be disregarded.

Even if the bull flag pattern is dismissed, the downward-sloping channel observed is a bullish pattern. This channel typically sees the price break out upwards rather than downwards.

Bitcoin ETFs’ Impact

Brandt also attributes some of the hype to Spot Bitcoin ETFs. Over the past nine days, continuous inflows have increased their Bitcoin holdings significantly. From Friday to Tuesday, these ETFs bought over $1 billion in BTC.

Technical Indicators and Momentum

The catalyst for a breakout is a weekly stochastic RSI cross up past the 20 level. This would likely bring significant momentum, potentially driving Bitcoin to new highs. Additionally, analysts often compare Bitcoin to gold as a safe investment during economic uncertainties. Since the pandemic, Bitcoin has outperformed gold by nearly 1,000%.

The stochastic RSI for the BTC/GOLD pair recently crossed up, mirroring the BTC/USD trend. This indicates potential bullish momentum for Bitcoin.

Conclusion: Bulls vs. Bears

The market remains divided. Bears believe Bitcoin will decline into a bear market, while bulls see this as the start of a significant price surge. Which side are you on?

Bitcoin has seen a significant pump, reaching $65,000 in a short time. This sudden surge raises the question: Will BTC continue its upward trend, or is a pullback due for some consolidation?

Institutional Influence on Bitcoin

Bitcoin’s price surge is driven by several factors. Institutional money is flowing back into Spot Bitcoin ETFs, with eight consecutive days of inflows totaling $1.9 billion. This influx has shifted market sentiment dramatically. The Fear and Greed Index, which was at 28 last week (indicating fear), has jumped to 69, signaling greed.

Is Bitcoin Overbought?

Despite the recent pump, Bitcoin appears overbought and may be due for a short-term pullback. Support levels at $63,000 and $61,000 could be potential targets for this correction.

$65,000: A Critical Resistance Level

The $65,000 resistance level is a significant barrier to further growth. The stochastic RSI on the daily chart is at its peak, suggesting that a retracement is likely. A pullback to $63,000 or even $61,000 could occur before renewed momentum drives the price higher. The upward-sloping trend line, which has been respected since October 2023, might continue to provide support.

Mid-Range Battle

On a broader scale, Bitcoin is battling to stay above the mid-range level. This makes the $65,000 resistance even more crucial.

Bitcoin Bull Flag Formation

A key technical pattern to watch is the bull flag. The recent drop to $53,500 confirmed the third touchpoint of this pattern. A break and retest of the bull flag’s top could provide the momentum needed to break through the current range. However, a pullback might occur before this breakout.

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s recent pump to $65,000 has changed market sentiment and brought optimism. However, overbought conditions suggest a short-term pullback is possible. Key support levels at $63,000 and $61,000, along with technical patterns like the bull flag, will be crucial in determining Bitcoin’s next move. Patience will be rewarded in this volatile market.

Bitcoin (BTC) experienced renewed selling pressure on Tuesday, following blockchain data indicating that the now-defunct exchange Mt. Gox started moving coins internally. This move is part of a potential repayment plan for creditors.

Impact on Bitcoin’s Price

The leading cryptocurrency briefly dipped 3%, falling below $63,000 after testing the $65,000 mark during early Asian trading hours. The decline coincided with the initial movement of 0.021 BTC ($1,000) to the blockchain address 1EoZd1QNCiN9JbnsqvLRDbHKLygAsXHg3V. This small transfer, likely a test, was followed by a significant movement of 44,527 BTC ($2.84 billion) to an internal wallet, as tracked by Arkham Intelligence.

Mt. Gox’s Role in the Selling Pressure

Mt. Gox, once the largest Bitcoin exchange, went bankrupt in 2014 after losing hundreds of thousands of bitcoins to a hack. The exchange started repaying its debt on July 4, leading to concerns about mass selling by creditors who have awaited reimbursements for nearly a decade. According to on-chain sleuth Lookonchain, the coin movements are likely part of this repayment plan.

Broader Market Impact

Bitcoin’s price drop affected the broader cryptocurrency market. Ether (ETH), the second-largest digital asset by market value, also dipped over 2.5% to $3,400.

The weekend attack on pro-crypto presidential candidate Donald Trump is expected to boost bids for cryptocurrencies, according to one observer.

Impact on Cryptocurrency Market

Assets tied to Trump’s chances of winning the November 4th elections are experiencing renewed volatility. This comes after an assassination attempt on the former president on Saturday. Bitcoin (BTC) has surged 7% to $62,500 since the attack, increasing Trump’s odds of winning to 70% on Polymarket.

Bitcoin’s Momentum

Bitcoin has surpassed the crucial 200-day simple moving average (SMA), a key indicator of long-term trends. This trendline, which has characterized the downtrend since early June highs, signals a positive momentum for traders, according to CoinDesk data. Additionally, Trump-themed Polifi tokens, which blend politics and finance, have also surged.

Trump’s Crypto Strategy

In recent months, Trump has pivoted to support crypto to outmaneuver his rival, Joe Biden, and win over the crypto community seeking a friendlier regulatory environment. Bitcoin and the broader crypto market are now seen as bets on Trump’s victory. The former president is set to speak at the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville, Tennessee, on July 27.

Market Reactions

Greg Magadini, director of derivatives at Amberdata, noted in an email, “The biggest fundamental news over the weekend was the Trump assassination attempt. Absolutely insane. This has improved the odds of a Trump presidency. Trump being the pro-crypto president should help galvanize the cryptocurrency bids.”

Global Financial Impact

The Chinese yuan (CNY) traded lower against the U.S. dollar due to the potential for higher trade tariffs if Trump wins. Earlier this year, Trump suggested revoking China’s “most favored nation” status for U.S. trade and imposing tariffs of over 60% on Chinese goods. The Mexican peso (MXN) also fell, reflecting Trump’s historically tense relations with Mexico.

U.S. Financial Markets

Prices for futures tied to the 10-year Treasury note declined, hinting at higher yields. A Trump return to the White House would likely mean more spending, tax cuts, and higher budget deficits. Investment banks are betting that a Trump victory would steepen the currently inverted yield curve, historically leading to broad-based risk aversion in financial markets.

Stock Market and Dollar Index

As of writing, S&P 500 futures traded 0.18% higher, signaling a positive open on Monday despite disappointing economic growth figures from China affecting Asian stocks. The dollar index, tracking the greenback’s value against major fiat currencies, traded 0.10% higher at 104.19, according to TradingView.