Toncoin (TON), Telegram’s native cryptocurrency, has faced a turbulent month with a 17% decline, recently slipping under $5 before showing signs of a rebound. Despite this recent dip, on-chain data suggests a potential price recovery fueled by changes in holder sentiment.

Holder Confidence Boosts Toncoin Prospects
As TON’s price dipped, a significant shift occurred among short-term Toncoin holders. According to IntoTheBlock data, the token’s “Coins Holding Time” metric has surged by 142% over the past week. This metric gauges how long holders keep a cryptocurrency without selling, often indicating market confidence.
An increase in holding time usually shows a positive outlook, as holders are signaling they see recovery potential. For a stronger rebound, Toncoin needs this holding momentum to sustain, helping prevent a further decline from its recent 17% dip.

Whale Activity and Market Influence
Large Holder Netflow to Exchange Ratio, which tracks whether major holders are sending tokens to exchanges, further supports TON’s recovery case. A declining ratio suggests that these “whales” are holding onto their TON tokens rather than preparing to sell. As long as whales refrain from liquidating assets, TON’s price may benefit from reduced selling pressure.

Toncoin Price Prediction: A Rally Toward $6?
Toncoin’s Money Flow Index (MFI) has also surged, showing increased buying pressure that could push the price above $5.22. Higher MFI values typically indicate that liquidity is flowing into the cryptocurrency, fueling buying activity.

With this buying momentum, technical indicators like the Fibonacci retracement suggest a potential price rise toward $6.15. However, if short-term holders begin selling, this upward trend could stall, possibly sending TON back down to around $4.46.
For now, Toncoin’s on-chain indicators hint at optimism as both short- and long-term holders back the token. If these trends continue, TON may see a full recovery in the coming weeks.