Cardano (ADA) looks ready for a significant rally after breaking through a three-year-old resistance trendline. With a strong rebound in November, ADA now targets a 100% price gain by March 2025.
ADA’s Rocky Start and Recent Turnaround
2024 was tough for Cardano, making it one of the year’s worst-performing cryptocurrencies. ADA lost over 40% of its value year-to-date by October. However, the tide turned in November as the coin erased nearly six months of losses within just one week. Now, Cardano aims for a substantial rally heading into 2025.
Hoskinson-Trump Rumors Spark ADA’s Rally
On November 10, ADA’s price jumped over 20%, reaching its April high of $0.597. This gain came amid a broader crypto market rally, driven by Donald Trump’s reelection on November 6, a pro-crypto candidate.
Rumors suggesting that Cardano’s founder, Charles Hoskinson, might join the Trump administration in 2025 fueled the price spike. However, during a YouTube livestream, Hoskinson clarified there was no formal invitation. He mentioned plans to set up an office for government interactions but did not confirm any direct involvement with a crypto policy department under Trump.
Market Speculation and Potential Risks
Despite the buzz, Trump hasn’t announced a dedicated cryptocurrency policy group. This suggests ADA’s price jump was driven mainly by speculation about a possible collaboration with Hoskinson.
ADA Price Forecast: Could It Double?
ADA’s recent surge pushed its daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) to the highest overbought levels since December 2023. This signals that the market might be overheated, increasing the chances of profit-taking soon.
As of November 10, ADA was testing resistance at the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, around $0.599. If a pullback occurs, the price could dip towards the $0.548-$0.489 range by the end of November. This range aligns with a retest of the broken multi-year descending trendline.
If ADA holds support here, it could confirm the breakout, setting the stage for further gains. In December, ADA might test the 0.786 Fibonacci level near $0.65. A breakout beyond this point could propel the price toward $1.139 in early 2025, implying a 105% rally.
Risks of a False Breakout
However, if ADA fails to sustain its breakout above the long-term descending trendline, it could indicate a false breakout. This would increase the risk of a deeper pullback towards the ascending trendline support at around $0.350.
