Bitcoin’s price has historically followed predictable cycles, often experiencing bear traps before reaching new all-time highs. Some analysts believe Bitcoin is currently in such a phase, suggesting that a major bull run could be on the horizon.
What Is a Bitcoin Bear Trap?
A bear trap occurs when an asset’s price drops sharply, convincing investors that a prolonged downtrend is beginning. However, the price quickly rebounds, catching those who sold at a loss. This pattern is common in stocks, crypto, and indices.
According to crypto analyst Finish, Bitcoin’s bull cycles typically last nine months, with bear traps appearing around the sixth month. Each time, Bitcoin’s price dips, triggering panic, before reversing to new highs.
Historical data from 2011, 2013, 2017, and 2021 suggests this pattern is repeating in 2024–2025. Finish predicts, “The 2025 cycle is the same. Six-month bear trap, then a new ATH.”
Historical Bear Traps and Their Causes
Each Bitcoin bear trap has been triggered by key market events:
- 2013: Bitcoin crashed after the Silk Road shutdown and China’s crypto ban.
- 2017: The ICO boom drove Bitcoin to $20,000, but a bear trap followed after the CME Bitcoin futures launch and Tether transparency concerns.
- 2021: Bitcoin hit $69,000, but market hype and Elon Musk’s Bitcoin payment reversal triggered a bear trap.
For 2024–2025, Finish believes macroeconomic factors, including US President Donald Trump’s policies, are influencing Bitcoin’s price movement.
Will Bitcoin’s Bull Run Start in 2025?
Crypto analyst Danny shares a bullish outlook, predicting Bitcoin’s biggest rally will begin in April 2025. He suggests that Bitcoin could reach $300,000 by 2026, stating:
However, not all analysts agree. Ecoinometrics notes that Bitcoin’s growth rate in this cycle is slower than in previous ones. Meanwhile, CryptoQuant’s Ki Young Ju suggests that Bitcoin’s bull run may have already ended based on profit and loss cycle signals.
Final Thoughts
Bitcoin’s current market phase is highly debated. While some analysts expect a massive rally in 2025, others believe the bull run may have peaked. Investors should watch key indicators and macroeconomic trends to gauge the market’s next move.
