Bitcoin ($BTC) is facing downward pressure following the introduction of spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the U.S. last Thursday. Data from Kaiko, a Paris-based analytics firm, reveals that the selling pressure is particularly concentrated on major crypto exchanges such as Binance, OKX, and Upbit.
As of now, Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency by market value, is trading at $42,700, marking a 12% decrease from the high of $48,975 observed last Thursday.
This decline appears to be driven by traders capitalizing on profits from long (buy) positions that were initiated in anticipation of the ETFs’ debut.A key indicator called the cumulative volume delta (CVD) highlights that Binance traders played a significant role in the “sell-the-fact” pullback in Bitcoin.
The CVD tracks the net difference between buying and selling volumes over time, providing insights into the overall bullish or bearish pressures in the market. Positive values indicate excess purchase volume, while negative values suggest the opposite.Binance’s spot market CVD turned positive last Thursday but has been steadily declining since then, indicating a capital outflow equivalent to almost 5,000 BTC, according to Kaiko’s data. South Korea’s Upbit experienced the second-largest net capital outflow, followed by Itbit and OKX.
Following the ETFs’ launch, there was a notable surge in cumulative volume delta (CVD) across major exchanges. Nearly 3,000 BTC were market-bought on Binance in the hour surrounding the U.S. market opening.
However, the anticipated “sell the news” scenario unfolded, causing Binance’s CVD to quickly turn negative, along with OKX’s, as reported in Kaiko’s weekly analysis.Itbit, an institutional exchange with lower volumes, consistently showed selling activity, as did Upbit, which demonstrated consistent selling with minimal retracements, according to Kaiko.Interestingly, the CVD on Coinbase, the primary custodian for most ETFs, and Bitstamp has remained positive, suggesting a net capital inflow despite the ongoing price weakness.Some analysts predict that prices could further decline to $40,000 and below before the pullback loses momentum.
The initial performance of the ETFs has been relatively weak compared to Bloomberg analysts’ projections of $4 billion in inflows on the first day alone, supporting the argument for a more significant price drop.
