Bitcoin July Returns: Strong Gains Expected After June Lows

Bitcoin (BTC) enthusiasts have reasons to be optimistic this month. Historical data and seasonal cycles suggest that the largest cryptocurrency may see a price boost following months of declines and rangebound trading.

Recent Trading Trends

BTC has fluctuated between $59,000 and $74,000 since April. This volatility is due to billions in sales, impending selling pressure, outflows from exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and negative sentiment among retail traders. However, a historically bullish July could change this trend.

On the first day of July, U.S.-listed ETFs saw inflows of nearly $130 million, their highest since early June, following over $900 million in outflows during June.

Historical Performance

Singapore-based QCP Capital highlighted in a recent Telegram broadcast, “Bitcoin has a median return of 9.6% in July and tends to bounce back strongly, especially after a negative June (-9.85%).” They also noted that their options desk observed positioning for an upside move, likely anticipating the ETH spot ETF launch. Many indicators suggest a bullish July.

Over the past decade, Bitcoin has averaged gains of more than 11% in July, with positive returns in 7 out of 10 months. Crypto fund Matrixport reported that July returns from 2019 to 2022 were around 27%, 20%, and 24%, respectively.

Understanding Seasonality

Seasonality refers to the predictable changes in asset prices that occur every calendar year. While these patterns might seem random, they often stem from factors like profit-taking around tax season in April and May, leading to drawdowns, or the generally bullish “Santa Claus” rally in December, indicating increased demand.


Disclaimer: Not Investment Advice

it’s crucial to understand that the information provided here is not to be construed as investment advice. The crypto market is dynamic and highly speculative, and decisions should be made based on thorough personal research and consideration of individual risk tolerance. Always consult with financial professionals and conduct your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. The intention of this exploration is to present insights and trends, not to provide specific investment recommendations.

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